US Senator slams Polymarket’s partnership with the MLB
US Sen. Richard Blumenthal has condemned a partnership between Major League Baseball and prediction platform Polymarket, as Congress advanced measures to restrict the sector.
Blumenthal, along with Sen. Andy Kim, introduced the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act on March 11, which would regulate sports event contracts more like sports betting, set up safeguards against manipulation, and curb federal exemptions used by trading platforms.
In a statement to Front Office Sports, Blumenthal said, “It is astonishing and appalling that Major League Baseball would, in effect, be complicit in this.”
The bill would shift oversight away from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and require prediction markets to obtain approval through state-level betting regulators, targeting products that mirror traditional wagering formats.
Nevada regulators have already taken enforcement steps. The state has secured early court rulings preventing prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, from offering contracts in Nevada.
Blumenthal stated that the structure allowed access for users aged 18, which is below the minimum gambling age of 21 for regulated sports betting.
Blumenthal said, “The CFTC shouldn’t be regulating this. What does the CFTC know about sports betting?”
At least eight federal proposals targeting prediction market oversight have been introduced in recent weeks.
Charlotte Capewell brings her passion for storytelling and expertise in writing, researching, and the gambling industry to every article she writes. Her specialties include the US gambling industry, regulator legislation, igaming, and more.
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The Backstory
Why a league deal ignited a political backlash
Major League Baseball’s embrace of a fast-growing prediction market collided with Washington’s mounting skepticism over event-based trading. The league’s move to make Polymarket its official prediction exchange prompted a sharp rebuke from Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who argues sports outcomes priced like futures are sports bets by another name and should fall under state gambling rules, not the federal derivatives regime. His criticism landed as lawmakers in both parties rushed to tighten oversight, setting up a test of whether prediction markets can coexist with modern sports integrity programs or will be curbed as unlawful wagering.
The backlash did not arrive in a vacuum. In recent months, MLB had shifted from exploring a concept to signing a formal pact. Commissioner Rob Manfred first told club owners the league was weighing partnerships with prediction platforms to bolster integrity monitoring and differentiate them from sportsbooks, describing a distinct federal framework that could offer information-sharing advantages. That trial balloon foreshadowed the formal arrangement that followed.
From trial balloon to formal pact
MLB’s internal debate surfaced when Manfred briefed owners in Florida that the league was considering working with prediction markets amid an integrity scare, arguing the platforms could provide data and cooperation that traditional books might not. He cast the federal oversight model as a differentiator as teams weighed risks and benefits. Those comments, made while the league managed a pitching scandal, signaled an openness to nontraditional partners in the name of surveillance and control. Read the earlier discussion of those owner meetings and the league’s rationale in MLB Commissioner floats potential partnership with prediction markets.
Weeks later, MLB moved from consideration to execution. The league named Polymarket its official prediction market and, crucially, paired the announcement with an information-sharing agreement and memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The MoU calls for coordinated reviews of contracts that could raise integrity risks. The deal also gives Polymarket access to MLB branding and Sportradar’s official data to resolve markets. MLB framed the alignment with regulators and a data provider as a way to police manipulation risks while tapping a new channel for fan engagement. Details of that pact are laid out in Polymarket becomes official prediction market of the MLB.
Congress tightens the vise
Even as MLB stitched together a compliance scaffold with the CFTC, Congress advanced bills to wall off sports from federally overseen event contracts. A bipartisan proposal from Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to bar CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts tied to sports and casino-style games. The sponsors cast the offerings as illegal wagers marketed nationwide under a derivatives veneer and said the products bypass state consumer protections and tribal sovereignty. The measure arrives as state regulators ramp up enforcement and could clip the very category MLB has embraced. The contours of the bill appear in Bipartisan Senate bill aims to prohibit sports betting on prediction markets.
That proposal builds on a flurry of federal ideas to restrict or redefine event contracts. It also tracks rising state pushback. Arizona moved first with criminal charges against a rival platform, Kalshi, for illegal gambling, underscoring that state attorneys general and gaming commissions are asserting jurisdiction even as the CFTC supervises these markets. Separately, Nevada secured early court rulings to keep prediction platforms from offering contracts in the state, an example Blumenthal has highlighted while pressing his own oversight measure.
How Polymarket got back in the game
Polymarket’s path to an MLB badge traces through a high-stakes regulatory turnaround. The platform exited the U.S. several years ago after a CFTC settlement over operating an unregistered venue. It set the stage for a comeback by acquiring derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCEX for $112 million, then secured a CFTC no-action letter clearing a return to U.S. users under a registered structure. That pivot turned Polymarket from a crypto-native outlier into an operator plugged into a regulated framework, a shift that helped make a league partnership politically conceivable. The transactions and timeline are detailed in Polymarket set to relaunch in US as early as Friday and Commodity Futures Trading Commission gives Polymarket go-ahead for US launch.
The relaunch filings show how Polymarket tailored its U.S. menu to categories that regulators have scrutinized most—athletic events, spreads and totals, plus elections—while promising clearing and surveillance modeled on futures markets. The CFTC’s stance remains contested in finance and on Capitol Hill, but the no-action letter gave Polymarket a legal foothold that leagues could evaluate. That credibility, combined with a data-sharing pact with MLB and access to official data feeds, underpins the league’s argument that prediction markets can be fenced in with controls.
Integrity claims meet market reality
MLB and Polymarket say real-time price signals can flag anomalies faster than traditional channels, potentially deterring inside information abuse or manipulation. The Super Bowl set a high-water mark for prediction market volume, and March Madness trading surged, proving the liquidity that integrity units covet for pattern detection. The owner briefing outlined why leagues see analytic upside from this liquidity. However, lawmakers and some state regulators read the same metrics as proof these products have become full-fledged wagering, available to younger users and beyond state tax and problem-gambling regimes. For that camp, MLB’s partnership blurs lines the post-PASPA system tried to keep bright.
The MoU with the CFTC is meant to answer those concerns by creating a formal lane for scrutiny of sensitive contracts and a mechanism to suspend listings that threaten competitive integrity. Yet if Congress bars CFTC registrants from listing sports contracts, the arrangement could be undercut regardless of its safeguards. The Schiff-Curtis bill would force event markets out of federal purview on sports and back toward state-by-state approvals, where many regulators have already said no.
What to watch next
The next phase turns on whether policy or practice moves first. If Congress advances a ban on sports-linked prediction contracts, MLB’s strategy may shift to data-sharing without commercial branding. If not, the league will test whether integrated monitoring with a CFTC-supervised exchange can coexist with state prohibitions and court challenges. Watch for other leagues to take cues. The UFC, NHL and MLS have already stepped into this space, and the NFL has signaled openness to partnerships, as noted when Manfred briefed owners in Florida in the commissioner’s remarks to club owners.
For Polymarket, the stakes are existential. The platform’s U.S. comeback rests on an evolving regulatory theory and the claim that prediction markets produce public goods—better forecasts and better integrity—rather than just novel bets. As volumes climb and political scrutiny intensifies, the industry will need to prove that guardrails are more than branding. Whether MLB’s deal becomes a template or a cautionary tale will hinge on how fast Congress acts and how convincingly the league can show that market intelligence strengthens, not compromises, the game.
