Prediction markets the hot topic at analyst conference
DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment presented at the Jefferies Nantucket Consumer Conference on 17-18 June, and, according to Jefferies analyst David Katz, the companies “highlighted early progress on predictions, alongside a focus on market making, which we view as widening the range of outcomes.”
World Cup play also was buoying the sports betting giants, leading to customer acquisitions in North America and Latin America. Another company seeing Latin American momentum was Rush Street Interactive, “with the outcome of the upcoming Colombian election ranging from flat to modest positive.” Rush Street also was looking toward potential igaming expansion in the United States, highlighting Virginia, New York State, Illinois and Maryland as possible targets of opportunity.
DraftKings reported that early results of its prediction-market application “have been positive, with additional prediction-related updates planned ahead of the NFL season.” Executives were of the opinion that event-contract momentum was influencing regulation of online sports betting, with new states likelier to legalize it and existing ones contemplating tax changes.
“Future customer acquisition costs should become more efficient, supported by expanded customer data tracking across all 50 states,” DraftKings executives were reported as saying. The World Cup’s importance was downplayed as a customer-acquisition tool and strategic lead-in to the NFL play.
For their part, Flutter execs offered that “multiple product enhancements are in the pipeline for prediction markets, with a heightened focus on establishing leadership in combo markets, where structural barriers persist for more complex products,” Katz chronicled. They saw higher visibility for FanDuel through market-making, which they regarded as the most important silo.
“Early results from the loyalty program have been positive,” Flutter brass continued. Their target was to reach their entire customer base before NFL kickoff, mainly to integrate igaming play into customer habits.
While a modest lift in volume was foreseen from World Cup action, its “earnings impact remains contingent on event outcomes.” Flutter management predicted that igaming would be legalized by “at least” one more US jurisdiction by the end of 2027.
RSI executives said their “enhanced marketing strategy has contributed to recent share gains, with the latest evolution focused on expanding into new customer acquisition channels.” They downplayed the importance of Colombia’s election, saying that whoever won was unlikely to implement near-term changes in gaming policy. Katz disagreed, writing that “the more business-friendly party is likely to win.”
Like its fellows, RSI saw the World Cup primarily as a change to get customers, particularly in its first week. World Cup-related marketing was focused mainly on Colombia, while North American play was described as an “incremental positive” for the company.
RSI also was upbeat on Alberta’s coming igaming and online sports-betting launch. It also sees Virginia, Illinois, Maryland and New York City as potential falling dominos for igaming legalization. RSI reported that it had applied for a prediction-market license, “as a prospective hedge should PM legalization become more clear in the future.”
Sportradar, which presented at the conference, viewed prediction markets bullishly. It described its top priorities as to bring in more leagues, to partner with brokers and to bring on more market makers.
According to Katz, summarizing Sportradar’s point of view, “regulation aside, partnering with prediction markets represents a step toward enabling micro-markets, on the view that market makers should gain greater comfort with risk profiles as access to real-time data improves.
The World Cup was seen as “a key catalyst” for Sportradar’s trading services, even though Sportradar lacked data rights to the tournament. Igaming prospects were described as being as distant as 2029 but “a long-term growth driver, with meaningful monetization estimated” down the road.
David McKee is an award-winning journalist who has three decades of experience covering the gaming industry.
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The Backstory
Event contracts move from sideshow to strategic question
Prediction markets have become a new fault line for gambling operators, data suppliers and regulators because they blur a boundary the industry has spent years trying to define. Sports betting in the United States has been legalized state by state, with tax rates, licensing rules and consumer protections negotiated through gaming agencies and legislatures. Event contracts, by contrast, have developed through a different regulatory channel and can resemble financial products as much as wagers.
That distinction explains why DraftKings, Flutter Entertainment and Rush Street Interactive treated prediction markets as more than a product experiment at the Jefferies Nantucket Consumer Conference. For large operators, the attraction is not simply another betting format. It is the possibility of gathering customer data nationally, testing market-making capacity and building engagement in states where online sports betting or igaming remains restricted.
The timing matters. Operators are preparing for the NFL season, the highest-volume period in the U.S. betting calendar, while also watching global soccer events such as the World Cup as acquisition opportunities. A prediction-style product can extend the customer funnel beyond conventional sports wagers, particularly if operators believe regulators will eventually treat event contracts as a permissible, or at least negotiable, path into broader wagering activity.
U.S. expansion remains uneven and politically contingent
The renewed focus on prediction markets comes as online sports betting and igaming expansion has slowed in some key U.S. states. Sports betting has achieved broad legalization since the Supreme Court overturned the federal ban in 2018, but online casino has advanced far more cautiously. Operators continue to identify Virginia, Illinois, Maryland and New York as potential future igaming markets, though each faces different political and budgetary dynamics.
That uneven map creates incentives for companies to explore adjacent products. If a sportsbook cannot offer online casino in a given state, or cannot operate sports betting at all, a prediction-market product may offer brand exposure and data-gathering opportunities. DraftKings’ view that customer acquisition costs could become more efficient across all 50 states reflects that logic. More data can lower the cost of identifying likely customers when a jurisdiction opens or when a company introduces a related product.
At the same time, regulators are showing that the online market’s boundaries will not be left to operators alone. The Michigan Gaming Control Board’s enforcement push against offshore and illegal operators shows how state agencies are prioritizing consumer protection and the defense of licensed businesses. Michigan has issued almost 100 cease-and-desist letters and used industry forums to present its enforcement strategy, underscoring that regulators see illegal online gambling as a direct threat to public confidence in legal markets.
That enforcement backdrop is relevant to prediction markets. Even if event contracts are framed differently from sports wagers, regulators are likely to examine whether products function like betting, how they are marketed and whether they reach consumers who are supposed to be protected by state-level gambling rules. The more operators lean into prediction products, the more likely state and federal authorities are to test where those products fit.
Integrity concerns widen beyond professional sports
The rise of always-on wagering has also increased scrutiny of match integrity, insider access and prohibited betting. Colleges and conferences have become particularly sensitive because athletes, coaches and staff may have access to nonpublic information while also being more vulnerable to outside pressure. That concern has pushed monitoring tools from the professional betting market into college athletics.
The Southland Conference’s partnership with IC360 to monitor online betting illustrates how compliance infrastructure is expanding with the betting market. The agreement includes suspicious-wagering detection, education for athletes and staff and use of ProhiBet to prevent people barred by NCAA rules from gambling. Such systems reflect a broader industry assumption: if betting access widens, oversight has to widen with it.
Prediction markets could intensify that challenge. Event contracts may cover elections, awards, economic releases or other outcomes where participants, employees or insiders could hold an information advantage. In sports, the integrity model is already built around data feeds, league partnerships and monitoring services. For broader event markets, those safeguards may be less mature or more fragmented.
That is why Sportradar’s interest in prediction markets is strategically important. Data suppliers see an opportunity to sell real-time information, trading services and risk tools to brokers and market makers. If event markets evolve toward micro-markets, where users trade on increasingly granular outcomes, data quality and latency become central to risk management. But the same speed that creates product appeal also raises questions about fairness, surveillance and the ability to detect manipulation.
Asia shows the other side of online growth
The global debate over online gambling is not limited to U.S. licensing and financial-market boundaries. Asia offers a parallel lesson in how quickly digital wagering can become a political issue. The region is attractive to global suppliers and operators because of its scale, mobile adoption and fragmented regulatory regimes. Yet that same fragmentation creates enforcement and social-policy risks.
SBC’s decision to add an Asia-focused track at its Lisbon summit reflects that commercial appeal. The program will examine the region’s sports betting and igaming market, India’s regulatory prospects and the Philippines’ transition after the ban on offshore gaming operators. The Asia-dedicated conference agenda at SBC Summit 2025 frames the region as a long-term growth hub, but also as a market where compliance cannot be separated from politics.
For operators considering prediction markets, Asia’s experience is a reminder that digital gambling products can scale faster than regulatory consensus. Governments may initially tolerate or encourage online activity for tax revenue, technology development or channelization away from illegal markets. Public concern can then rise sharply if addiction, youth access or criminal activity becomes politically visible.
That pattern is especially clear in the Philippines. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has called for a national conference to address igaming addiction and develop policy, while warning that a total ban could drive activity underground. The Philippines’ planned igaming conference reflects a government trying to distinguish between outright prohibition and tighter regulation after the country’s experience with Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators.
Social backlash is becoming a regulatory driver
The political risk is no longer only about whether gambling is legal. It is about whether governments are seen as enabling addiction through digital products that are available at any hour and on any device. That concern has become more forceful as gambling shifts from casinos and betting shops to phones, where age controls, affordability checks and advertising standards are harder to monitor in real time.
In the Philippines, the Catholic Bishops’ Conference has become one of the most prominent critics of online gambling. Cardinal Pablo David has accused PAGCOR, the country’s regulator and operator, of promoting online gambling beyond its mandate and has called for digital platforms to be outlawed. The Catholic Bishops’ Conference’s criticism of PAGCOR shows how religious and civic groups can push gambling policy from technical regulation into a national moral debate.
That kind of backlash matters for international operators and investors. Prediction markets may be marketed as exchanges, contracts or information products, but consumers often experience them as speculative wagering. If losses, addiction concerns or youth participation become visible, public officials may respond based on social impact rather than product taxonomy.
For DraftKings, Flutter, Rush Street and Sportradar, the opportunity is clear: prediction markets could expand engagement, improve data collection and create new revenue streams at a time when legalization is incremental. The risk is equally clear. Products that appear to route around established gambling rules may invite a stronger regulatory response than traditional sports betting, especially if they grow before policymakers settle jurisdiction, consumer-protection and integrity standards.
The stakes before the next legalization wave
The industry’s current positioning suggests that prediction markets are being treated as a hedge against slow legalization and a possible bridge to future products. Rush Street’s application for a prediction-market license fits that pattern. Flutter’s emphasis on market making and combo markets points to a more sophisticated trading model. DraftKings’ focus on early user response suggests operators want proof of demand before the NFL season tests scale.
What happens next will depend less on conference optimism than on regulatory interpretation. If authorities allow prediction products to coexist with state-regulated betting, operators could gain a national engagement layer that reshapes acquisition economics. If regulators decide the products amount to unlicensed gambling, the market could narrow quickly.
The broader backstory is that online gambling is entering a more complicated phase. Growth is still possible, but it is increasingly conditioned by enforcement, integrity systems and social tolerance. Prediction markets sit at the intersection of all three.
