Lula appointed Brazil’s next president, igaming future in question
Brazil has elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its next president, potentially confirming the nation’s igaming shutdown, including sports betting.
The result marks Lula’s fourth win in a presidential election, previously serving two terms from January 2003 to December 2010 and starting from January 2023.
The long-term politician faced strong competition from Flávio Bolsonaro, who initially beat Lula in the early October first round elections. Bolsonaro was running on a campaign which was anti-online casino but was not against sports betting.
The new move means that Lula’s initial provisional measure banning igaming from early October is likely to remain in place, provided that it is approved by Congress. The decision has been labelled as “institutional self-sabotage” by analysts at Blask, noting that the nation is shuttering a U$6.6 billion GGR industry.
“Licensing moved Brazil’s market onshore, and the ban sends it back offshore,” highlighted the report early this month.
Lula’s new term starts on 5 January 2027.
Numerous amendments to the provisional betting ban have already been submitted, the majority of which support sports betting, while aiming to end legalized online casinos. Other proposals focus on allowing licensed operators, in both the sports betting and online slot space, to continue operating, while cracking down on unlicensed offshore sites.
Some other proposals stick with a full ban, proposing specifics on sanctions, bank liability for blocking payments, new crimes for operating or promoting bets and other specifics.
Some proposals aim to soften the blow for licensed operators, allowing them to run out the remainder of their licenses, without allowing renewal.
Given the election results, Congress could see pressure to maintain the status quo and leave the ban in place, causing a massive rift in the LatAm expectations for igaming operators.
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The Backstory
Brazil’s regulated market gives way to a political reversal
Brazil’s decision to preserve a sweeping betting ban under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva marks a sharp reversal for one of the world’s most closely watched gambling markets. The country had only recently moved fixed-odds betting into a federal regulated framework, creating expectations that Latin America’s largest economy would become a cornerstone for global operators seeking long-term growth.
That opening proved brief. The regulated model became fully operational on Jan. 1, 2025 under the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting within the Ministry of Finance. Less than two years later, Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394, which prohibited the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting, covering both sports betting and online casino games. The measure also applied to state and Federal District authorizations, cutting across a market that had been built around federal and regional permissions.
The measure took force upon publication but still required congressional approval to remain in effect. Its staged implementation barred new deposits and bets from Sept. 25, required platforms to remain available only for withdrawals until Oct. 5 and forced websites and apps offline from Oct. 6. The policy shift, detailed when Brazil banned all sports betting and online casino gaming, also denied operators refunds of authorization fees or compensation for market closure.
Public pressure reshaped the election debate
The ban emerged from a political environment in which betting had become a mainstream campaign issue. Lula, seeking another term, increasingly framed online gambling as a social and financial harm. His criticism intensified during rallies and international appearances, including a United Nations speech in which he argued bookmakers encouraged addiction and financial distress.
His principal opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, also moved against online gambling, though with a narrower target. Bolsonaro backed eliminating online casinos while maintaining support for sports betting tied to real events. That distinction mattered because online casino products accounted for a large share of licensed operators’ revenue. A Bloomberg-cited estimate put online casinos at 70% to 80% of licensed operators’ Brazilian revenue, underscoring why a casino-only ban would still have severely damaged the sector.
The convergence between the two candidates reflected public sentiment. A Bloomberg-commissioned AtlasIntel poll cited in earlier coverage found 75% of Brazilian voters supported a ban on online betting, with 17% opposed. Finance Ministry figures showing 25 million Brazilians placed wagers in 2025 gave both campaigns a basis to argue that the market had expanded too quickly. The political alignment was evident when Lula and Bolsonaro both called for an online betting ban ahead of the presidential election.
Football became the most visible economic casualty
The backlash was not limited to gambling operators. Brazilian football clubs, many of which had become heavily dependent on betting sponsorships, warned that the sudden shutdown would destabilize team finances. Federations in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro were among those signing a letter that described the ban as a “fatal blow” to Brazilian soccer and warned of possible insolvency.
The concern reflected the speed with which betting money had become embedded in club budgets. Consultancy firm Convocados and sports investment firm Outfield found that Serie A clubs generated BRL1 billion in direct advertising revenue from sports betting companies in 2025, a 67% increase from the prior year. Economist Cesar Grafietti said that amount represented nearly 10% of clubs’ recurring revenue, before accounting for related effects on stadium advertising and broadcast deals.
That dependency strengthened the argument from clubs and operators that a ban would not simply remove logos from shirts. It could trigger player sales, lower salaries and reduced transfer activity. Lula’s response was dismissive, saying clubs would have to “figure out” the ban and pointing to earlier periods of Brazilian football success before betting sponsorships. The dispute was captured as Brazilian football teams protested the online sports betting ban, showing how a gambling policy had quickly become a sports finance issue.
Congress became the industry’s remaining route
Because Brazil’s provisional measures require congressional approval, lawmakers became the focal point for efforts to preserve at least part of the regulated market. More than 40 amendments were submitted after the measure was issued, with many seeking to distinguish sports betting from online casino gambling.
Several proposals would allow sports betting to continue, often limited to core outcomes such as match results and final scores. Others would let licensed operators in sports betting and online slots continue while tightening enforcement against unlicensed offshore sites. A separate group of amendments supported a full ban but sought to define sanctions, banking obligations, promotional offenses and other enforcement mechanisms. Some proposals attempted to cushion operators by allowing them to run until existing licenses expired without permitting renewal.
The amendment process reflected the competing pressures on lawmakers: a public mood hostile to betting, a regulated industry warning of offshore migration and football clubs warning of financial damage. The legislative stakes were clear when a majority of proposed amendments supported maintaining sports betting. Congress faced a Nov. 23 deadline to complete deliberations or allow the measure to expire, making the debate both procedural and existential for licensed operators.
Courts tested the limits of a sudden shutdown
Operators also turned to the judiciary, arguing that the government had moved too abruptly after encouraging investment in a regulated market. Stake became the highest-profile early test case when its Brazilian platform obtained a preliminary injunction from the São Paulo Federal Court allowing it to continue operations until Oct. 25.
Judge Cristiane Farias Rodrigues dos Santos did not strike down the provisional measure. Instead, she found that the government could not suspend operations without a reasonable deadline and said temporary preservation until Oct. 25 was a conservative measure to avoid effects more burdensome than those contained in the measure itself. Stake had sought permission to operate until Dec. 31, 2029, but the court rejected that broader request.
The injunction, described when Stake was granted temporary permission to continue operating in Brazil, signaled that courts may scrutinize implementation even if they avoid overturning the policy. The Attorney General’s Office said it would appeal, suggesting the judiciary could become a parallel battleground over deadlines, compensation and administrative fairness.
Illegal market risk sits at the center of the dispute
The central policy question is whether prohibition will reduce gambling harm or push consumers toward offshore platforms. Industry groups warned before the measure was published that demand would not disappear and that bettors could migrate to sites beyond Brazilian oversight, weakening player protections, tax collection and enforcement.
Authorities already faced an illegal-market problem before the ban. Brazil blocked 66,482 domains linked to unauthorized betting platforms between January 2025 and September 2026, while the Brazilian Association of Games and Lotteries identified 6,409 illegal domains operating in a single week in September 2026. The provisional measure created an interinstitutional committee to coordinate action against illegal betting and advertising, but operators argue enforcement will be harder without a licensed market to absorb demand.
That tension explains why the election result matters so directly for the industry. Lula’s victory gives political momentum to keeping the ban intact, while congressional amendments and court challenges remain uncertain paths to compromise. For operators, football clubs and payment providers, Brazil has shifted from a growth market to a test of whether regulated gambling, once dismantled, can be partially rebuilt.
