Kalshi expands into Brazil with XP partnership
Kalshi is expanding beyond the US for the first time through a partnership with Brazilian brokerage XP, Bloomberg reported.
Under the agreement, Kalshi will offer event-based contracts linked to Brazil’s economy, including yes-or-no predictions on inflation and interest rates. The contracts will be available to Kalshi’s existing US users and select Brazilian investors through XP’s brokerage platform.
Kalshi Co-Founder Luana Lopes Lara told Bloomberg that the company chose to expand through an established financial partner rather than entering new markets independently.
“It makes sense for us to go through these international partners,” she said. “They already have the customers, they have the brand.”
XP is one of Brazil’s largest brokerage firms with about 4.8 million active clients as of December. Lucas Rabechini, Head of Financial Products at XP, told Bloomberg that prediction markets are a disruptive product, but compared them to derivatives such as structured notes and interest-rate options.
The prediction markets will initially be available to clients of Clear Corretora, which is an XP subsidiary with international brokerage accounts, and the contracts will be listed through XP’s US brokerage wing.
Brazil has no structured regulatory framework governing prediction markets, although the country’s finance ministry has said it is monitoring the sector.
The expansion follows growing scrutiny for Kalshi in the US. Last week, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel sued the operator for offering illegal gambling in the state.
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The Backstory
Brazil becomes Kalshi’s first overseas test
Kalshi’s decision to enter Brazil through a tie-up with brokerage XP underscores a strategic pivot: expand internationally via regulated finance partners rather than build market presence from scratch. The company will list yes-or-no contracts on metrics like inflation and interest rates through XP’s U.S. brokerage arm while initially targeting clients of Clear Corretora, XP’s international-facing unit. The move, first reported by Bloomberg, frames prediction markets as adjacent to derivatives and puts a consumer brand with millions of Brazilian clients between Kalshi and a new audience. That gives the operator distribution and local credibility at a moment when Brazil’s rules for event-based markets remain nascent and the U.S. climate has grown tougher.
Choosing XP reduces acquisition costs and regulatory friction while letting Kalshi stress-test product fit in a large, maturing market. XP has scale and a reputation for retail investing access in Brazil, which could help normalize event contracts as a portfolio tool rather than a novelty. It also lets Kalshi lean on a partner’s compliance stack as Brasília sketches where prediction markets sit alongside betting and capital markets oversight. The playbook mirrors how fintechs have entered complex jurisdictions: go where the customers already are, then iterate.
Scrutiny at home sets the context. Kalshi has faced legal challenges in the United States, including a recent lawsuit from Michigan’s attorney general alleging illegal gambling. Brazil offers growth but not a regulatory blank slate. The finance ministry has said it is monitoring the sector, and the optics of cross-border listings will matter. XP, which balances innovation with mainstream brokerage duties, is a logical buffer while rules evolve.
For more on the partnership dynamics and initial product scope, see Bloomberg’s report on how Kalshi teamed with XP for its first international push: Kalshi teams up with Brazil’s XP for first international push.
A regulated betting market takes shape
Brazil’s broader gambling landscape has shifted fast this year, creating a tide that is lifting a mix of sportsbook, casino and live-dealer products. The country launched regulated igaming and sports betting on Jan. 1 with 66 licenses at the outset, including 14 definitive and 52 provisional approvals, setting a baseline for market entry and compliance. That foundation enabled content providers to move quickly. Play’n GO expanded into Brazil’s regulated igaming market with more than 50 titles at launch and plans to scale. The developer emphasized tailoring content by market, a through line as operators chase differentiated engagement under new rules.
This regulatory moment is not a prediction-market regime, but it is relevant. Consumer behavior and payments rails are formalizing. Licensing is creating more reliable counterparties. Marketing rules are clarifying. These features lower execution risk for new formats that feel financial but may be categorized as gambling depending on how contracts are structured, where they’re listed and who can access them. Kalshi’s design choices — from contract settlement to eligibility and disclosures — will need to harmonize with a regime built for sportsbook and casino products even as the offering leans into macro data.
Distribution land grab among suppliers and operators
The rush to secure audience and shelf space is intense. Playson’s partnership with KTO extends a string of deals that followed its Feb. 4 regulatory approval. The studio is pushing a portfolio known for graphics and engagement into a competitive field via the Bragg Hub platform. The logic is straightforward: lock in local operators early to secure recurring placement and data on player preferences.
Live casino is following the same script. SkillOnNet’s Brazil expansion with Ezugi brings roulette, blackjack and baccarat — with localized limits and Spanish-speaking dealers — to platforms like PlayUZU and BacanaPlay. Localization and live operations are expensive, but they deepen engagement, which in turn stabilizes customer acquisition costs under advertising caps and responsible gaming mandates. That is critical as more brands chase the same users.
Sports betting infrastructure is also consolidating around specialist providers. Kambi’s expanded partnership with Superbet gives the operator a broad traded-odds feed across Latin America and Central Europe. Kambi supplies pricing and technology while Superbet owns the front end and market growth. For Brazil, that division of labor lets operators scale quickly and refocus on marketing and compliance as the market formalizes. It also raises the bar for independent pricing desks to keep up with live data and volatility.
These deals matter for Kalshi and XP. A consumer acclimated to dynamic odds, live interfaces and clear settlement rules in sports and casino products will find the jump to binary macro contracts less foreign. Conversely, any misstep in design or disclosure could be judged against maturing standards for fairness and transparency set by casino and sportsbook incumbents.
From betting slips to macro contracts
XP has framed prediction markets as analogous to structured notes or rate options, while Kalshi positions them as event contracts tethered to verifiable economic outcomes. That comparison will shape oversight and adoption. Sportsbooks monetize probability through vig and promotions. Event exchanges monetize through fees and liquidity incentives. Derivatives desks manage exposure with hedging and capital rules. Brazil’s regulators will assess where these contracts sit in that spectrum based on counterparty risk, settlement data and investor protection needs.
Practical design choices will be decisive. Listing contracts through XP’s U.S. brokerage unit, then gating access to specific high-net-worth or international account holders at Clear Corretora, narrows the initial audience and aligns with existing suitability protocols. It also reduces immediate pressure on Brazil’s still-developing framework for prediction markets. If volumes prove manageable and outcomes settle cleanly, XP can make the case that the product belongs in a monitored, investor-centric channel rather than the wider betting ecosystem.
Meanwhile, the broader market keeps codifying norms around pricing integrity and customer messaging. Superbet’s reliance on Kambi’s traded odds, and Ezugi’s localized dealer operations, signal a premium on trust and cultural fit. Those same attributes will matter for macro contracts that ask users to stake money on data prints and central bank moves.
What to watch next
Three threads will determine whether Brazil becomes a durable growth lane for prediction markets. First, licensing scope and taxonomy. If authorities explicitly classify event contracts and set capital, disclosure and marketing standards, XP and peers will have a clearer runway. Second, product design. Transparent settlement, tight spreads and guardrails around sensitive events will build credibility with both regulators and users. Third, cross-border compliance. The U.S. backdrop — including recent legal actions — raises the stakes for how these contracts are offered to Brazilian residents through international brokerage channels.
The early signals elsewhere in Brazil’s gaming economy are constructive. Providers like BetGames’ tie-up with Betsul follow full certification and long-term licensing, which suggests the state is ready to sustain regulated growth rather than greenlight a brief boom. If that stability holds, XP’s move with Kalshi could evolve from a controlled pilot to a broader product line that sits alongside structured notes and ETFs on the same app. The test now is execution — and whether regulators accept that prediction markets can be supervised with the same tools they use for other retail risk products.
