Kalshi downloads surpass major sportsbooks ahead of Super Bowl LX
Kalshi has overtaken major sports betting apps in downloads in the run-up to the Super Bowl, according to a report by Bloomberg.
Data from analytics firm Apptopia shows that Kalshi’s app was downloaded more than 3 million times in January, surpassing the monthly figures for DraftKings and FanDuel, which have historically been the most popular mobile sportsbooks in the US.
According to the data, both operators reported downloads of less than 1 million in January.
“Three million downloads in a single month is a feat that no other sportsbook app, real money gaming app, or fantasy sports app has ever hit in the United States,” Tom Grant, Vice President of Research at Apptopia, told Bloomberg.
Kalshi has the advantage of being legally available nationwide. Prediction market platforms are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which classifies its contracts as federally regulated financial instruments rather than traditional wagers subject to state gambling rules. This means that platforms like Kalshi can offer their services without requiring state gambling licenses, unlike DraftKings and other sportsbooks.
Just a few months ago, Kalshi was considerably behind these established gambling firms in user acquisition. But the dramatic surge in downloads suggests a shift in interest toward prediction markets, particularly surrounding big events like the Super Bowl.
Despite its growing popularity, Kalshi has come under regulatory scrutiny in recent months, receiving a cease-and-desist order from Tennessee’s gambling regulator before a federal judge issued a temporary injunction allowing it to continue operations.
Charlotte Capewell brings her passion for storytelling and expertise in writing, researching, and the gambling industry to every article she writes. Her specialties include the US gambling industry, regulator legislation, igaming, and more.
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The Backstory
A rush of downloads before the big game
Prediction markets took center stage in the run-up to the Super Bowl as a Bloomberg analysis found Kalshi’s app surged past top sportsbooks in U.S. downloads. The numbers, drawn from Apptopia and published by Bloomberg, showed Kalshi cleared three million downloads in January, outpacing established operators that typically dominate big-event betting cycles. The timing matters. Super Bowl week is the annual high-water mark for acquisition across legal wagering, yet the most eye-catching growth this year came from a federally regulated prediction market, not a traditional book. That shift underscores how event-based trading and “yes/no” contracts are pulling in retail users by offering a stock-like interface with nationwide reach.
The legal distinction is central. Kalshi and similar platforms operate under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, framing contracts as financial instruments rather than wagers subject to state-by-state gambling regimes. That structure can give them immediate scale during marquee events. It can also invite friction. Kalshi has already drawn state scrutiny, with actions that resulted in litigation and a court order allowing operations to continue for now. The Super Bowl surge suggests that even contested models can capitalize on national moments, testing the boundaries of who gets to intermediate Americans’ appetite to stake on outcomes.
The legal seam prediction markets exploit
CFTC jurisdiction has enabled prediction markets to pitch nationwide access while sportsbooks remain fenced by state lines. But the path is hardly clear. Regulators in several states argue these markets simulate gambling and should be licensed like sportsbooks, especially on sports outcomes. The tension is visible in Nevada’s recent action against Polymarket. A state court issued a temporary order blocking the platform from offering event contracts to Nevada residents ahead of the Super Bowl, siding with the Gaming Control Board’s view that Polymarket’s activities likely violate state gambling rules. Inside the industry, the move is read as a warning that states will not cede sports-adjacent activities lightly, even if platforms cite federal commodities law.
For a snapshot of the pushback, see our coverage of Polymarket’s temporary Nevada ban, which notes a coming injunction hearing and the company’s plan to file an opposition. Front Office Sports first reported the filing, available here: Front Office Sports on the Nevada court order. The broader takeaway: while federal oversight offers a lane, it does not inoculate prediction markets from state enforcement when the products and marketing resemble betting.
New entrants scent opportunity
The surge has drawn competitors. Robinhood moved quickly to bridge retail trading and event outcomes, launching Pro Football Championship event contracts tied to the Super Bowl. The product extends an approach Robinhood has tested on political outcomes and is pitched as trading rather than gambling, making it available to eligible users in all 50 states. That detail is not trivial: a single, nationwide product is cheaper to scale and market than the patchwork builds required in state-licensed sports betting. For Robinhood, event contracts also diversify revenue away from equities and options at a time when user engagement can whipsaw with market cycles.
If prediction markets continue to post outsized acquisition during tentpole events, more fintech names may follow. The underlying product—binary outcomes with clear settlement—maps neatly onto retail investors’ appetite for simple, time-bound trades. But the further platforms move into sports, the more likely they are to trigger state-level reactions that could narrow the field or force hybrid compliance models.
Sportsbooks fight for attention anyway
Traditional operators leaned into pop culture to keep casual bettors engaged. In Oregon, the state lottery rolled out Taylor Swift-themed Super Bowl props on DraftKings, a nod to the celebrity-fueled halo effect around the game. The strategy highlights a core dynamic: licensed sportsbooks must compete for share of mind during a crowded media moment, where ad inventory is expensive and first-time bettors jump between products that promise novelty. Themed bets and boosted markets are designed to cut through that noise.
But novelty does not always translate to profit. Outcomes can swing operator revenue dramatically, as Pennsylvania’s results show. After the game, regulators reported that Pennsylvania sportsbooks lost $6.5 million on Super Bowl wagers as a heavy tilt toward the hometown team paid off. The state’s data also underscored the digital reality of the market, with more than 90 percent of handle placed online. When outcomes break the wrong way, generous promos amplify losses. That volatility is a constant pressure on marketing budgets as operators chase growth and retention.
Regulators eye risk as ads and confidence swell
Amid the growth push, consumer risk is rising on regulators’ agendas. A Responsible Gambling Council survey in Ontario found nearly half of adults who planned to watch the Super Bowl expected to place a wager and more than a third reported betting more than they could afford in the past year. The research flagged ad-driven behaviors and an “illusion of control” among younger men who believe sports knowledge boosts the odds of winning. That psychology is not unique to sportsbooks. Prediction markets and event contracts rely on the same behavioral triggers—belief in insight, the draw of simplicity and the lure of quick settlement.
This is where the regulatory divide blurs. State gambling authorities target ad content, deposit limits and time-outs, pressing operators to deploy tools that curb harm. Prediction markets argue they are financial instruments, but as their user base converges with mainstream sports bettors, the pressure will mount for comparable safeguards. The more platforms market around sports and entertainment, the harder it becomes to defend a separate rulebook in the court of public opinion, regardless of jurisdictional claims.
The stakes for who wins the Super Bowl of scale
Kalshi’s January spike, reported by Bloomberg here: Bloomberg on Kalshi’s downloads outpacing sportsbooks, is a stress test for incumbents and regulators. If prediction markets can consistently on-ramp millions during national events, they will not just siphon casual bettors. They will challenge the marketing economics of sportsbooks that must buy state-level reach and weather outcome volatility. Fintech entrants like Robinhood will pursue the same audience with lower customer acquisition costs, raising the bar for product simplicity and fees.
The counterweight is regulation. Nevada’s case against Polymarket shows states can quickly narrow access on sports-linked contracts. Consumer protection advocates are already focusing on ad intensity and overconfidence risks highlighted by the Responsible Gambling Council. And sportsbook losses like Pennsylvania’s remind investors that revenue can be lumpy even when handle climbs. The next phase will hinge on court rulings, federal-state coordination and whether platforms implement responsible-usage features that satisfy policymakers. Until then, prediction markets have found a seam—and the Super Bowl proved how fast they can run through it.
