Codere posts double-digit increases

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2026/02/18: Rush Street posts double-digit increases in fourth quarter 2025/02/21: Codere Online net gaming revenue increases 5% in fourth quarter 2025/11/17: Codere Online delivers ultimatum to Colombia on tax 2025/07/31: Codere Online blames Mexican peso for problems

The Backstory

Setting the stage for Codere’s rebound

Codere Online’s latest quarter lands after a year of cleanup and recalibration. Through much of 2025 the operator worked to steady the business, lift growth in Spain and hold ground in Mexico while navigating currency swings and tax shocks elsewhere. Its fourth quarter showed modest traction, with net gaming revenue up five percent to €52.6 million, as Spain advanced and Mexico held flat in reported terms. Executives framed those results as stronger on a constant currency basis and pointed to building customer cohorts in both core markets. That set the tone for 2026 guidance and a plan to turn steadier execution into sustained gains.

The company also cleared a corporate overhang. After receiving a Nasdaq notice late in 2024, Codere secured more time to submit documentation, then told investors in early 2025 that it had regained full compliance. That step removed a cloud that had distracted from operating progress and let management focus on growth levers in Spain and Mexico heading into this year.

The latest numbers underscore that sequencing: stabilize, simplify and then scale where returns look most durable. The backstory explains how Codere got here and what could alter the trajectory next.

Clearing compliance clouds while defending topline

Regulatory noise weighed on sentiment last year, but Codere moved to end it. Management disclosed in November that the company had received a Nasdaq notice tied to prior documentation, then reported in mid February that Codere had regained compliance and “put an end to the uncertainty” around its listing. Those milestones are detailed in a fourth-quarter update that also logged a five percent revenue rise. The same period showed where the growth was coming from: Spain up 10 percent to €22.8 million, Mexico flat in reported euros but stronger on a constant currency view.

Earlier in the year, Codere acknowledged that currency movements had masked underlying demand. On its July call, executives said a 19 percent Mexican peso devaluation left consolidated revenue flat year over year, even as first-time depositors and active users climbed. The company’s recap of that quarter — including the compliance fix — is in Codere’s discussion of “peso problems” and customer growth. The message: the core engine was adding players, but FX turned growth into stasis on paper.

Spain’s steadying role amid a hard market

Spain became the ballast. Through 2025, management called it a competitive, “hard” landscape but one where Codere had “found the formula” to keep KPIs on track. The third quarter offered an early read — Spanish net gaming revenue rose five percent as active users ticked up four percent — while Mexico and other markets saw mixed trends. That split is captured in the third-quarter snapshot that showed Spanish gains offset elsewhere.

The pattern continued into the fourth quarter. Spain advanced another 10 percent year over year, helping lift consolidated net gaming revenue five percent despite FX and softer results in secondary jurisdictions. The geographic mix, and the discipline behind it, are set out in the fourth-quarter breakdown of country performance. Management has leaned on Spain to deliver consistent growth as it fine-tunes marketing and product cadence in Mexico for scale events later in 2026.

Mexico’s scale story, tempered by FX and taxes

Mexico remains the swing factor. Codere has pushed volume there, citing surges in first-time depositors and active customers. In the third quarter, active customers in Mexico rose 39 percent even as reported net gaming revenue was flat after FX. That dynamic is laid out in the third-quarter constant-currency analysis and in management’s July commentary on peso-driven headwinds. The company argues the base is set for operating leverage as FX stabilizes and marquee sports align with acquisition cycles.

Policy risk complicates the math. Executives have warned that Mexico’s planned doubling of the gambling tax could cool investment and push weaker rivals out, reshaping the competitive field. They also said any increase would force a rethink of commercial terms and capital allocation, even as they expect a “more benign corporate landscape” over time. Codere’s view on those trade-offs features prominently in its third-quarter call, where leaders mapped tax scenarios in Mexico. The calculus: near-term pressure on margins, potential medium-term share gains if entrants retreat.

Colombia’s VAT shock and regional triage

Colombia shifted from growth option to red flag. A presidentially imposed value-added tax on deposits, described by Codere as “harsh,” drove what executives estimated to be roughly a 40 percent top-line impact in that market. In response, the company drew a line: no further investment if the levy is renewed. That position is spelled out in Codere’s ultimatum to Colombia on tax policy and echoed in management’s summer remarks on Colombia’s viability. With Panama showing some product-led mitigation and Mexico prioritized, Codere has treated Colombia as optionality contingent on policy relief.

The posture tightens Codere’s focus on markets where it believes economics can compound. It also reflects a broader theme across the sector: regulatory friction can flip country P&Ls quickly, forcing operators to concentrate bets and protect cash flow.

Cash discipline, guidance and industry context

Codere has paired geographic selectivity with balance sheet restraint. By late 2025 it held cash in the high €40 millions, repurchased a small slug of stock and reiterated full-year revenue and cash flow targets despite FX and tax noise. The fourth quarter confirmed that stance, and the company later stuck with a 2026 range that implies steady double-digit expansion. Those details run through the third-quarter guidance reaffirmation and the fourth-quarter update on revenue and cash trends.

Peers have been signaling similar confidence. Rush Street Interactive’s fourth-quarter beat and 2026 outlook highlighted robust growth across geographies with heavier contribution from igaming. That read-through matters for Codere, which leans on online casino strength in Spain and seeks operating leverage in Mexico. The gap is in absolute scale and ARPU, but the direction — larger player bases and firmer cash generation — is aligned.

What’s next: policy calls, FX and the sports calendar

Near-term watch items are clear. Mexico’s tax changes and any enforcement shifts, Colombia’s decision on VAT renewal, and the peso’s path will steer reported results and capital intensity. Codere’s stance in Colombia is binary. Its approach in Mexico looks more surgical, balancing promotional throttle against margin protection if the tax hike lands. The sports calendar, including the World Cup next year, adds a catalyst for acquisition and engagement if currency and costs cooperate.

Corporate housekeeping should fade as a storyline. After securing more time on filings and then restoring Nasdaq compliance — as referenced in the fourth-quarter report that noted the extension — Codere can keep the focus on operating metrics: active users, net gaming revenue by market and cash conversion.

The arc from last year’s headwinds to this year’s momentum is straightforward. Stabilize Spain, scale Mexico despite FX, exit or pause where taxes break the model, conserve cash and guide cautiously. If currency stabilizes and Mexico’s tax reset thins the field rather than demand, Codere’s recent acceleration could prove durable. If not, the company’s willingness to pivot away from value-destructive markets will be tested again.