Survey finds 36% of Brazilians bet on sports in the last year

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The Backstory

Why the market is at an inflection point

Legal wagering has moved from the fringes to the mainstream in the space of a few years, creating a larger customer base and a new set of risks. In the United States, a 2018 Supreme Court ruling opened the door for state-by-state legalization, and at least 38 states, DC and Puerto Rico now allow sports betting. Yet public sentiment is cooling. A Pew Research Center survey found rising negativity toward sports betting, with 43% of Americans saying it hurts society, up from 34% in 2022. The share who believe betting harms sports has also climbed.

The scale is global. Brazil legalized fixed-odds betting in 2018 and launched the regulated market in January. Within months, activity surged. A PoderData survey showing 36% of Brazilians bet in the past year equates to more than 56 million adults placing wagers. Regulators have leaned on consumer protections, including self-exclusion and ad standards, but debt linked to online betting more than doubled year over year, intensifying calls for oversight.

These crosscurrents — rapid adoption, growing spend and mounting concern — frame today’s policy and business choices. Operators are chasing engagement through in-play wagering and proposition bets. Lawmakers are weighing consumer harm, taxes and enforcement. Bettors are splitting between casual, low-stakes play and higher-intensity behavior. The backstory is a market still defining its own boundaries.

Brazil’s surge tests safeguards and messaging

Brazil’s rollout offers a playbook and a warning. The PoderData findings indicate a leap from 24% to 36% of adults betting year over year, a sign that pent-up demand has moved swiftly into the legal channel. The government coupled the launch with mitigation tools: mental-health support, a national self-exclusion system and prohibitions on fixed-odds bets for beneficiaries of Bolsa Familia and Continuous Cash welfare programs.

The data suggests these measures were timely. The reported debt rate tied to online betting jumped to 35% in September from 16% last October. In response, the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting and the National Council for Advertising Regulation have tightened guidelines to curb risky marketing and enhance compliance. The challenge is balancing a newly formalized economy with consumer protections that keep pace with digital products engineered for engagement.

Brazil’s experience also underscores the revenue-versus-risk calculus. A bigger legal market promises tax intake and job growth, but the cost of problem gambling — personal, social and fiscal — can erode gains if safeguards lag product innovation. The country’s next moves on enforcement, advertising and affordability checks will signal how it intends to manage that trade-off during the industry’s first full year of legal operations.

In the Philippines, regulation over prohibition gains ground

Debate in the Philippines centers on whether to tighten rules or pursue prohibition. A Fourth Wall study of Filipino online gamblers found 89% are low-stakes players who spend less than PHP5,000 a month, roughly 10% of income, with most respondents younger and from lower-income households. Three in four said an outright ban would push them to unregulated sites, while 80% favored stronger regulation aimed at illegal operators to curb scams and addiction.

Industry voices have urged lawmakers to use data over rhetoric. DigiPlus Interactive, which runs BingoPlus, ArenaPlus and GameZone, has emphasized know-your-customer checks, age verification, self-exclusion and in-app prompts. The company says it is supervised by PAGCOR and tax authorities. Critics, including the Catholic Church, continue to argue for a total ban on moral and social grounds.

The stakes are practical as well as ethical. The study reports that many players migrated from informal gambling like sabong or perya and treat igaming as manageable recreation. If policy tilts toward prohibition, activity could move to offshore or illicit platforms with less oversight. If it leans into enforcement and consumer tools, the state may retain visibility and control. The survey points to demand for the latter, highlighting a path where regulation aims to blunt harms without losing the channel.

U.S. sentiment cools as betting behavior splits

Americans are betting at a steady clip even as skepticism grows. Pew found 22% of adults place sports bets, little changed from 2022, with online activity nearly doubling over that span. At the same time, operators are recalibrating product strategy. A Jefferies survey points to surging in-play and prop betting, a positive for handle that favors DraftKings and FanDuel’s parlay-heavy models and supports in-play data providers like Sportradar.

Not all research points the same way. An Optimove report on NFL wagering intentions says live betting participation dropped to 25% from 37% a year earlier, with pregame bets regaining favor. Most NFL bettors still plan to wager weekly, with point spreads and moneylines dominant. Promotions influence behavior, and most bettors use two or more apps, underscoring a promotional arms race that can pressure margins.

Policy adds another constraint. Integrity concerns have resurfaced with high-profile enforcement actions and calls like Ohio’s push to restrict player prop bets. If sentiment continues to sour and regulators clamp down on certain bet types, operators may need to lean more on user experience, responsible gaming tools and product variety outside the most controversial categories.

Money in motion: spend surges, loyalty lags

Spend per customer is rising faster in the U.S. than abroad, but engagement is less durable. The Optimove Gaming Pulse showing U.S. bettors outspend global peers found the average deposit hit $604 in May, up 10% year over year versus a 2% global increase. Average monthly casino spend reached $8,259, more than six times the global average, while sports betting spend was $1,001, nearly triple. Yet U.S. customers were active fewer days per month than global peers and had slightly lower retention.

That tension is reshaping acquisition and retention tactics. Operators are investing in in-play markets and proposition menus to increase session depth, echoed by the Jefferies findings that most surveyed bettors check odds and consider cash-out in game. But the Optimove NFL study shows limits, with bettors reporting budgets, high awareness of responsible gambling tools and fatigue with irrelevant marketing. Most still overspent at least once, a gap that regulators and consumer advocates are likely to probe.

The backstory, in short, is a market that has grown faster than public comfort. Brazil is stress-testing safeguards amid rapid adoption. The Philippines is weighing regulation over bans to keep activity onshore. The U.S. is seeing steadier participation, higher spend and more scrutiny. Where policy, product design and consumer behavior meet will define the next phase — whether the industry deepens responsibly or invites a harsher regulatory turn.