Sportradar execs emphasize prediction markets’ role in third-quarter success
At the top of the company’s third-quarter earnings call on 3 November, Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl said “sport has never been more valuable or more fragmented” in how fans consume it.
This demand for sports, reliant upon reliable, real-time data, meant that there was more appetite for Sportradar’s services than ever before, Koerl continued. “Sportradar will realize outsized benefits from these trends.”
IMG Arena was contributing “meaningfully” to Sportradar’s performance, Koerl said. The call marked the first anniversary of the IMG acquisition. It had most recently added golf and mixed martial arts offerings to its product suite, Koerl remarked.
Prediction-market partnerships were “starting to contribute to our results” and more were expected, the CEO resumed. Event contracts were flourishing alongside sports betting, he said, “not replacing it.”
Koerl touted Sportradar’s Polymarket alliance, which “has grown from a single sport into an end-to-end partnership.” He added that Novig was now Sportradar’s third-largest prediction-market partner, that Robinhood had just signed with Sportradar and more was to come.
As for stateside bans on prediction markets, Koerl disclosed that Sportradar had clauses enjoining the use of its data in such eventualities. So far, he added, no significant state markets has been closed, limiting the material effect.
Speaking of market closures, Koerl noted that, concerning Brazil, where online sports betting and iGaming were recently banned, Sportradar remained committed to its partners in that market. Koerl said the company was letting the Brazilian political and judicial processes play out. “A well-regulated framework is the best way to protect fans, players and sports,” he added.
In iGaming, “we continue to make great progress,” Koerl asserted. Sportradar was, he said, creating immersive video and data experiences. “This engagement will help expand our player journey for our sports book.”
Taking over the thread, Chief Financial Officer Craig Felenstein said Sportradar’s third-quarter was “driven by player demand across our product portfolio.” This was especially true, he elaborated, of the total addressable-market expansion made possible by prediction markets.
Previewing the fourth quarter, Felenstein said there would be two cash infusions. One would be the US$170 million Atrium proceeds and the other a US$50 million rights payment from IMG. Guidance for 2027 would be withheld until the fourth-quarter earnings call, he added.
Having pegged Brazilian revenues for 2026 at €60 million (US$67 million)1 EUR = 1.1189 USD
2026-11-03Powered by CMG CurrenShift, Felenstein said the new ban would result in some cost savings over time. But “you don’t see much of that yet.”
Noting that sports leagues in Brazil were lining up behind the ban, Koerl remarked that he expected more clarity by the end of the week, when the Brazilian Supreme Court would likely rule on whether to enjoin the presidential edict.
In the United States, Major League Baseball was said to be primed for a lockout of its players. “Rob Manfred has a bigger crystal ball than I have,” said Koerl, who added that he would prefer no lockout. However, Sportradar has contractual protections built in, should players be idled, he noted.
Koerl added that Sportradar had other tier-one sport events to fill a potential MLB void, including the WNBA, PGA and ATP. He expected bettors to move on from baseball to other sports.
The CEO also looked ahead to the 2027 launch of PlayRadar, Sportradar’s newest iGaming product. It would connect live sports and iGaming at high speed.
This was, Koerl said, going through regulatory approvals. “We’ve got great interest [but] this is still in the startup stage. What we see in the amount of interest is astonishing. [But] don’t expect hundreds of millions next year from that.”
Asked why Sportradar’s media performance had been so good, Koerl credited it to the World Cup and to prediction markets. “There is a furious fight out there for clients,” he said. “That is very helpful for programmatic advertising.”
Regarding share repurchases, Felenstein remarked with a laugh that “our thought process hasn’t wavered, even the share price has.” While Sportradar was, he said, still long for long-term growth opportunities, the strength of its balance sheet allowed for continuing buybacks.
David McKee is an award-winning journalist who has three decades of experience covering the gaming industry.
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The Backstory
Prediction markets move from talking point to growth driver
Sportradar’s latest quarter sits at the intersection of three forces that have been building for more than a year: the expansion of sports data rights, the rise of event-contract platforms and slower growth in traditional U.S. online sports betting. The company’s message to investors has shifted accordingly. What began as a cautious discussion of prediction markets as a future opportunity has become a central part of Sportradar’s growth narrative, with management now saying those partnerships are contributing to results.
That progression matters because Sportradar’s business depends on the value of fast, official and reliable sports data. As leagues, sportsbooks, media companies and event-contract platforms compete for fan attention, the company is trying to position itself as infrastructure rather than a discretionary vendor. Chief Executive Carsten Koerl has repeatedly framed the market as more fragmented but more valuable, a combination that favors companies able to package live data, video, integrity services and advertising tools at scale.
The current quarter also reflects a broader strategic bet: that prediction markets can expand Sportradar’s total addressable market without materially weakening its sportsbook relationships. In earlier calls, management argued that event contracts were drawing activity from states where online sports betting remains unavailable, including California and Texas, rather than taking share from legal sportsbook markets. That distinction underpins the company’s claim that prediction markets can be incremental, not cannibalistic.
IMG Arena became the foundation for a broader rights strategy
The backdrop to Sportradar’s current performance begins with its acquisition of IMG Arena, a deal management has described as central to strengthening its sports content portfolio. When Sportradar announced the IMG Arena acquisition had closed, executives said the portfolio would add “must-have” betting content and create both immediate and longer-term synergies. The company also raised guidance and expanded share repurchases, signaling confidence that the asset would improve growth and cash generation.
By the next phase of investor communication, IMG Arena had moved from deal thesis to operating platform. In a later earnings call, Koerl said Sportradar was ahead of synergy targets and had converted operators to the new contractual framework. That progress was central to management’s assertion that its three-year strategy remained on schedule. The company projected more than 700,000 streamed matches in 2026, up from 525,000 in 2025, and tied that scale to higher engagement and richer betting products.
The IMG portfolio also gave Sportradar more material to adapt across products. Golf, soccer, basketball, tennis and other rights can be repackaged into trading, media, advertising and visualization tools. That breadth is important as clients seek more in-play and personalized offerings. Analysts who attended Sportradar’s investor day noted that customers buying multiple products generated materially more revenue than single-product customers, reinforcing the company’s strategy of selling deeper into existing relationships.
For Sportradar, IMG Arena was not simply an acquisition of rights. It was a way to deepen its role with leagues and operators at a time when sports betting, streaming and fan engagement are converging. That helps explain why management continues to describe content depth and data quality as defensive advantages in a more crowded market.
A slower U.S. sportsbook market sharpened the focus
The urgency around prediction markets increased as the U.S. online sports betting market showed signs of cooling. In the second quarter, Sportradar executives said U.S. online sports betting growth had flattened, with unfavorable currency moves adding another headwind. Chief Financial Officer Craig Felenstein said expected prediction-market deals were progressing but taking longer to complete, meaning their full effect was not reflected in guidance.
That slowdown did not cause Sportradar to abandon its core sportsbook strategy. Instead, management said content and data services remained high-margin, high-value products while prediction markets offered an adjacent growth lane. The company emphasized that the largest event-contract opportunity was in jurisdictions without legal online sports betting. If that holds, Sportradar could gain access to customer activity in large U.S. states where sportsbook partners cannot yet operate.
The company has also described the rollout as disciplined because sports leagues must approve how their data is used. Earlier management commentary indicated that deals involving ATP, the NHL and other leagues were moving ahead, while other arrangements required league consent. That approval process has slowed deployment, but it also gives Sportradar a way to argue that its approach is safer and more durable than a rush to market.
The stakes are significant. If prediction markets remain legally viable, they could create tens of millions of euros in revenue for Sportradar while expanding its advertising and media services. If state or federal challenges limit the category, the company will need to rely more heavily on traditional betting growth, international expansion and new iGaming products to meet its long-term targets.
Regulatory and integrity questions remain central risks
Sportradar’s opportunity in event contracts is inseparable from regulatory uncertainty. Management has repeatedly acknowledged that prediction markets need clearer rules around player protection, anti-money laundering safeguards and game integrity. Leagues are also seeking financial participation and control over how their data and events are used. Those concerns have shaped the pace of Sportradar’s partnerships and the safeguards it says it is building into contracts.
Integrity has become more than a compliance function for the company. It is part of its sales pitch. Sportradar has highlighted its ability to spot wagering irregularities and protect league partners, especially after public scrutiny of sports betting scandals. In that context, prediction markets create both a commercial opening and a reputational test. The company must persuade leagues, regulators and sportsbooks that it can serve the category without undermining the regulated betting ecosystem.
Those concerns were amplified by allegations earlier in the year that Sportradar had provided services to illegal or unlicensed gambling operators. During a first-quarter call, executives rejected the short-seller claims, said the company supports only licensed businesses and emphasized its know-your-customer procedures. Koerl said only a small percentage of revenue was potentially exposed and announced personal and corporate share purchases as a statement of confidence.
The episode matters because Sportradar’s value depends on trust. It sells data to entities that operate in highly regulated markets. Any perception that its content can leak into gray or black markets creates risk with regulators, leagues and public-market investors. Management’s response has been to reinforce compliance controls while arguing that piracy and sublicensing are industrywide challenges, not evidence of intentional misconduct.
Capital returns and product expansion frame the next test
Sportradar has paired its growth story with aggressive capital returns. The company expanded buyback authorizations multiple times, citing a disconnect between its market valuation and business fundamentals. That approach has been consistent through periods of stock volatility, currency pressure and short-seller scrutiny. Executives have said repurchases remain attractive because the company has no debt and generates enough cash to invest in products and rights while returning capital.
At its investor day, Sportradar laid out a larger ambition. Analysts reviewing the event said management emphasized scale, artificial intelligence, pricing power and deeper relationships with leagues and customers. The company’s presentation, covered in a star-heavy Sportradar investor event, positioned the business as a pure-play way to gain exposure to global sports betting growth. Analysts noted that automation was lowering data-collection costs and that in-play betting could materially increase revenue.
That long-term story now depends on execution across several fronts. Sportradar must integrate IMG Arena, convert rights into higher-value products, navigate prediction-market regulation, maintain sportsbook relationships and prove that its iGaming initiatives can scale. PlayRadar, its developing iGaming product, is part of that broader effort to connect live sports data with casino-style engagement. Management has cautioned that the product remains early and should not be expected to generate large near-term revenue.
The current quarter suggests Sportradar is gaining traction in the areas it has identified as most important. Prediction markets are no longer theoretical, IMG Arena is contributing and media demand is being supported by major events and platform competition. But the same factors that create upside also raise risk. Regulation can change quickly, league approvals can delay launches and sportsbook growth may remain uneven. For investors, the question is whether Sportradar’s data network is becoming more indispensable as sports wagering fragments or whether the company is being pulled into markets whose rules are still unsettled.
