Prediction markets dominate ICE Barcelona
After two days of investor meetings at ICE Barcelona, Jefferies Equity Research analyst James Wheatcroft returned with an armful of impressions. His views were shared in a 25 January investor note.
The foremost topic on Wheatcroft’s mind was the rise of prediction markets. He reported that they were “the key discussion point across all meetings. Operators and suppliers continue to see no discernible impact from prediction markets in regulated states, driven by superior product, pricing and promotional capabilities of online sports betting, as well as differences in customer demographics.”
Gaming companies were, Wheatcroft found, more and more viewing prediction markets as an opportunity rather than a menace. This was partly because they saw chances for business-to-business transactions with them. It also was because they might speed up OSB regulation.
In addition, the expectation was that the igaming climate in the United States would thaw. Wheatcroft discerned that “expectations for prediction markets to catalyze new OSB state legalization are shifting to a matter of ‘when’, not ‘if.’”
Regulation in the United Kingdom by the Labour government was another area of concern, particularly for business-to-business suppliers. Points of keenest interest were the “immediate financial impact; smoothing the customer journey as operators manage implementation of tax-mitigating actions; and, discussions about the prospects for expansion of a material offshore market.”
Across the Atlantic, Maine’s legalization of igaming also prompted notice. Despite Maine’s modest population and igaming market, Wheatcroft felt its action would keep the legalization discussion aloft, as would the continued march of prediction markets and sweepstakes gambling.
Moving even fast was Brazil, now seen as the world’s third-largest igaming market, behind only the U.S. and the U.K. “However, its stability remains uncertain, with limited regulatory progress to tackle the estimated 30% of activity taking place via unlicensed black market operators,” Wheatcroft wrote.
But the analyst saw hopeful signs, including the recent clawback of a proposed 18% tax in favor of a graduated, 12%-to-15% one. Wheatcroft called this “a step in the right direction,” adding that “some suppliers have observed a pull-back in operator marketing in recent months, possibly ahead of heavy planned investment during the World Cup starting in June.”
The World Cup was indeed seen as a marquee event for providers of igaming, renewing dormant customer relationships and inspiring new ones. “Sports-facing operators and suppliers benefit directly, but those serving igaming markets also benefit from halo effects,” Wheatcroft explained.
Given that World Cup matches would be split between Mexico, Canada and the U.S., Wheatcroft espied “scope to drive a meaningful new level of interest in football during a traditionally quiet period of the North American sports calendar.”
The format would help, as well, he continued. This year’s World Cup will have 63% more matches than previous ones, up to 104. Also, 48 teams will participate, not the previous 32 squads.
Mergers and acquisitions also were the talk of the Iberian conclave. Wheatcroft found such conversations “more prevalent” than in 2025. Consolidation was viewed as a driving force, driven by tax hikes and regulatory changes. Opportunities to cross-sell products and to achieve savings through mergers were other contributory factors.
Artificial intelligence (AI) was the remaining hot topic from Barcelona. “Cost efficiencies (but not necessarily cost savings) and product enhancements (expansion in breadth and depth) are the main features, with concern from investors in some areas around potential disaggregation and increased competition,” Wheatcroft summarized.
David McKee is an award-winning journalist who has three decades of experience covering the gaming industry.
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The Backstory
Setting the stage in Barcelona
ICE’s first year in Barcelona reset the industry’s compass. Organizers said the trade show was sold out, with a projected 55,000 to 60,000 attendees and a program stacked with compliance and player-protection sessions, including a Big Tech and gaming panel that put data transparency and cashless payments under the microscope. That backdrop, detailed in coverage of the show’s kickoff, shaped every hallway conversation this week. Operators arrived with growth on their minds, but with regulators closer and more active than in recent memory.
That duality—ambition meeting scrutiny—colored how executives sized up the year. M&A talk perked up as tax regimes tighten in key markets. Product teams leaned on artificial intelligence to stretch road maps without overextending balance sheets. And compliance officers matched feature rollouts with player-safety guardrails to keep regulators onboard while preparing for the next U.S. state to open.
Against that context, investors and operators weighed what is hype versus what moves revenue. The tone in Barcelona suggested a pivot from anxiety to execution. Firms are hunting practical edges in pricing, personalization and channel mix that can survive regulatory whiplash.
Safety and regulation move to the front
Sustainability once sat in the side room at trade shows. This year it took center stage. Flutter Entertainment put its name and money behind the rebranded Sustainable Gambling Zone, committing to showcase tooling tied to its Play Well strategy and a donation to ICE’s safer gambling fund. The initiative, outlined in Flutter’s sponsorship announcement, focuses on earlier risk identification and higher engagement with customer controls. Flutter set a target of 75 percent of active online users engaging with a Play Well tool by 2030 and reported it was nearly halfway there by mid-2024 after significant spend on research and product.
The show-floor emphasis on consumer protection mirrored a broader compliance push that has intensified in the United Kingdom and United States. ICE programming this week dug into what big tech can learn from gaming’s rule-heavy environments and how operators can innovate in strict markets without triggering enforcement. As firms tune onboarding flows, deposit limits and affordability checks, the operational question is whether early-intervention models can blunt harm while preserving growth. The bet in Barcelona was that they can—and that demonstrable progress might soften the edges of new rules or at least make them more predictable.
Branding bets and AI step into the spotlight
Brand marketing returned with a flourish. Betby enlisted chess legend Magnus Carlsen as global brand ambassador, presenting the tie-up on ICE’s opening day as part of its “Make Your Move” campaign. In the on-site reveal, Betby framed the partnership as a statement about strategy and differentiation rather than celebrity for its own sake. The company used the moment to showcase an AI-based feed and product updates designed to broaden sportsbook depth and responsiveness.
AI ran through many exhibits, not as a cure-all but as a multiplier. Product leaders highlighted efficiency gains in content operations and risk models. Commercial teams pitched AI to sharpen personalization without bloating promo budgets. Investor caution lingered about disaggregation and fiercer competition as tooling lowers build barriers, but the consensus in Barcelona tilted toward AI as table stakes for product expansion in 2025. The question is less if and more how fast companies can integrate models into workflows that regulators will accept and customers will notice.
Deal flow and new-market pushes
Partnership news underscored how suppliers aim to stretch reach while managing cost. Four Leaf Gaming chose distribution over a standalone leap into North America, unveiling a deal with Bragg Gaming Group that plugs Four Leaf titles into Bragg’s remote games server and Fuze promotional suite. The play, announced on day one and detailed in Four Leaf’s partnership disclosure, gives the studio immediate access to U.S. operators and a proven player-journey toolkit. For Bragg, the agreement adds exclusive content and keeps its platform central as operators cycle in fresh games to defend share.
The logic matches what many executives voiced this week: distribution scale and cross-sell synergies can offset tax hikes and regulatory friction. Rather than fight for one more direct integration, studios are attaching to platforms with built-in reach. For platform providers, curating exclusive content is a retention hedge as operator procurement tightens and compliance costs rise.
The product clock is also speeding up. Suppliers used ICE to time launches, pilots and teasers to match major sporting windows. With this year’s expanded international football calendar creating marketing tailwinds, vendors pitched content slates designed to capitalize on acquisition bursts and reactivation cycles. That planning threaded through conversations about data rights, in-play pricing and how to keep casual sign-ups engaged once marquee events pass.
Show-floor momentum and what it signals
The physical show mattered this year in ways that go beyond foot traffic. The move to Barcelona brought fresh sponsor energy, high-visibility brand stunts and a heavier content agenda around compliance tech. As the opening-day agenda showed, ICE leaned into the practical frictions operators face—cashless, crypto, data transparency—and put regulators and former enforcement leaders on stage with cloud providers and compliance chiefs. That format forced sharper answers about how the industry will modernize payments and data sharing while satisfying oversight.
The Sustainable Gambling Zone’s scale signaled that player wellbeing is now a competitive dimension, not just a cost. Sponsors treated safer gambling as a product design topic with measurable KPIs, not a policy appendix. The proof will be in how quickly firms turn demos into default settings and how regulators respond when they do.
Meanwhile, brand alignments like Betby’s Carlsen move suggested that storytelling still matters when products look similar. The winners will likely be those who marry standout positioning with tangible product advantages—faster markets, smarter feeds, richer promos—and can prove it with data that stands up under audit.
Beyond the Barcelona headlines
ICE also pointed to what is coming next. Konami previewed a deeper online push slated for the 2026 show, with plans to debut Konami Online Interactive alongside new Solstice hardware. In its advance announcement, the company tied omni-channel content, including a Bomberman-inspired slot, to a remote server strategy aimed at streamlined operator access. The roadmap reflects a broader supplier shift toward unified game stacks across retail and digital, which could compress time to market and simplify compliance reviews.
Between now and then, the industry faces a busy calendar: evolving U.K. requirements, a patchwork of U.S. state rules and fast-moving Latin American markets. Companies in Barcelona spoke about pragmatism—using platform partnerships to enter new jurisdictions faster, investing in AI where it shows clear ROI and putting responsible-play tooling in front of customers by default. If those themes hold, next year’s debates will center less on if the sector can adapt and more on who did it best.
