NBA wants prediction market data to monitor insider trading activity
The NBA has said that it would like to gain direct access to prediction market data to curb and regulate potential insider trading.
Speaking to CNBC’s Squawk Box on Friday, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver explained that sporting integrity remained at the forefront of the league and that he found it “odd behavior” to have contracts related to an individual’s performance, using whether a coach could be fired as an example.
“Whether it’s called a prediction market, whether it’s sports betting, it’s the same issues for our league and I think for all the leagues, there’s issues around integrity first and foremost,” he commented.
“We want access to that data. We also want control of the market.”
Halting betting manipulation has remained a priority for the league. Last October, federal prosecutors announced charges against players Terry Rozier and Damon Jones for their part in providing insider knowledge to bettors. At the same time, Jones was also indicted alongside Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups for their involvement in an illegal poker ring run by organized crime groups.
The NBA is also not the only league calling for tighter regulations on prediction markets. Last week, the NFL filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court, supporting New Jersey’s case that the regulation of sports-event contracts offered by prediction markets should be left to the states and not with federal regulators.
The league also added that the minimum age for traders should be raised to 21 and that neither the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) nor prediction-market companies like Kalshi have done anything to prevent contracts susceptible to market manipulation.
Silver told CNBC that although the NBA agreed with the NFL on raising the minimum age requirements, it did not agree to having states regulate prediction markets, adding that, from the NBA’s point of view, a consistent regulatory policy would be in the league’s “best interest.”
Prediction markets remain regulated by the CFTC, with the Supreme Court yet to comment on the issue.
Charlotte Capewell brings her passion for storytelling and expertise in writing, researching, and the gambling industry to every article she writes. Her specialties include the US gambling industry, regulator legislation, igaming, and more.
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The Backstory
Leagues see a familiar integrity threat in a new market structure
The NBA’s request for direct access to prediction market data reflects a broader shift in how major sports leagues are responding to event contracts that increasingly resemble sports betting, even when regulated under federal commodities law. Commissioner Adam Silver’s concern is not limited to whether fans can trade on game outcomes. The sharper issue is whether markets tied to individual performance, roster decisions or employment outcomes create incentives for people with inside information to profit before the public knows what is happening.
That concern has intensified as prediction markets have expanded from elections and macro events into sports, politics, business and government decision-making. For leagues, the product category matters less than the risk profile. A contract on whether a coach will be fired, whether a player will sit out or whether a kicker will miss a field goal can turn private operational knowledge into tradable information. The NBA’s position is that it needs the same type of visibility it seeks from sportsbooks: data that can identify unusual patterns before they damage confidence in competition.
The league’s posture follows criminal allegations involving former and current basketball figures. Federal prosecutors last year charged Terry Rozier and Damon Jones over alleged insider knowledge provided to bettors, while Jones also was indicted with Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups in a separate illegal poker case. Those cases gave the NBA a recent example of how nonpublic team or player information can move into gambling channels, raising the stakes as federally regulated prediction markets seek sports-related volume.
The NFL pushed first for specific federal guardrails
The NBA is not acting in isolation. The NFL has spent months pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for tougher oversight of sports event contracts, arguing that the integrity risks of prediction markets overlap with those long associated with legal sports wagering. In one submission, the league urged regulators to raise the minimum age for sports-related trading from 18 to 21, restrict contracts vulnerable to manipulation and require stronger cooperation between exchanges and sports governing bodies.
Those recommendations were outlined in the NFL’s effort to secure stricter CFTC oversight of prediction markets. The league’s proposals targeted contracts it viewed as especially exposed to one-person manipulation, including markets tied to a missed field goal, an incomplete first pass or specific words used during a broadcast. The NFL also called for lists of banned participants, including league personnel, to be integrated into platform controls.
The league later expanded its argument as the CFTC reviewed proposed rules. In a separate filing, the NFL said the agency’s approach remained too weak and that contracts tied to officiating decisions, individual player performances and roster moves should be prohibited rather than merely monitored. That escalation, described in the NFL’s warning that CFTC prediction market plans fell short, framed the debate as both a consumer protection issue and a threat to the orderly administration of sports markets.
The NBA now shares some of that agenda, particularly the call for a higher age threshold. But Silver’s comments also show a strategic difference. The NBA prefers a consistent national regime rather than a patchwork of state oversight. That puts the league between two regulatory concerns: state gaming authorities argue sports betting belongs under state law, while the CFTC continues to oversee event contracts as commodities products.
Congress broadened the insider trading lens
Sports leagues are pressing regulators as Congress examines whether platforms can police insider trading across a much wider set of markets. House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer began with Kalshi and Polymarket, seeking documents on identity verification, geographic restrictions and systems for detecting suspicious trades. His inquiry followed concerns that government employees or people close to official decision-making could trade ahead of public announcements.
The initial probe into Kalshi and Polymarket’s insider trading controls came after several incidents sharpened Washington’s focus. A U.S. soldier was arrested over allegations that he used inside information to place wagers on political developments in Venezuela through Polymarket. Reports also flagged trades placed before military actions involving Iran. Those episodes helped move prediction markets from a niche policy debate into a congressional oversight matter.
Comer later expanded the inquiry to Hyperliquid Labs, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange, owner of PredictIt. The committee asked about know-your-customer procedures, suspicious activity monitoring and safeguards against trading on nonpublic information. The broader investigation into insider trading protections at additional prediction platforms signaled that lawmakers view the issue as structural rather than isolated to one or two companies.
The same investigation has drawn attention to enforcement actions and platform discipline. Kalshi banned former Rep. George Santos and imposed a fine over alleged trading tied to his own conduct, while the platform has said it is adding checks such as employment verification for customers seeking access to sensitive markets. For sports leagues, those measures are relevant but incomplete. They show that exchanges can create controls, but leagues want access to the data and a say in which contracts should exist at all.
Politics showed how fast private information can become tradable
The insider trading debate has been amplified by markets tied to political events, where information asymmetry can be especially difficult to police. Prediction contracts may react to speeches, personnel decisions, military actions or regulatory moves. That creates a broad class of people with possible access to tradable information, from government staffers to contractors, campaign aides and technology vendors.
Those concerns surfaced again after the launch of Truth API, a paid service offering faster access to posts from high-ranking Truth Social accounts. Critics argued that early access to market-moving presidential posts could benefit institutional investors or traders active in political prediction markets. The backlash over Truth API and insider trading concerns illustrated how the same questions facing sports leagues apply to politics: who gets information first, how fast it can be monetized and whether the public market is fair.
Companies have responded unevenly. Some financial institutions have limited employee participation in contracts tied to their own business or events they might influence. Kalshi has announced additional compliance partnerships intended to detect inappropriate trading. But the core challenge remains that event contracts can be created around facts known privately before they are visible publicly. In sports, that could mean injuries, disciplinary actions or lineup decisions. In politics, it could mean planned announcements or national security actions.
That convergence explains why the NBA’s demand for market data matters beyond basketball. Access to granular trading information could help leagues identify suspicious timing, repeat accounts and connections to people with privileged access. Without it, leagues must rely on platforms or regulators to detect patterns after the market has already moved.
The regulatory fight is now about control
The immediate question is whether sports event contracts should remain primarily under federal commodities oversight or be limited by state gambling regulators and sports integrity rules. The NFL has supported New Jersey’s position that sports-event contract regulation should be left to states, while the NBA has expressed support for a more consistent national policy. Both positions reflect the same fear: prediction markets could grow faster than the integrity systems around them.
For exchanges, federal oversight offers scale. A CFTC-regulated product can potentially reach across state lines in ways traditional sportsbooks cannot. For leagues and state regulators, that structure risks creating a parallel sports betting market without the same licensing, age limits, integrity agreements and data-sharing obligations that developed after the Supreme Court opened the door to expanded legal wagering in 2018.
The stakes are practical. If prediction markets can list contracts on individual players, coaches or officiating decisions, leagues may face a wave of tradable micro-events that are harder to monitor than conventional bets. If those contracts are restricted too heavily, platforms argue activity could shift offshore. The NFL has rejected that logic, saying integrity concerns should not be excused because similar products exist elsewhere.
The NBA’s latest comments place the league firmly inside that debate. Silver’s call for data access and market control suggests the league does not want to wait for a scandal before defining acceptable products. It also underscores the likely next phase of regulation: not whether prediction markets will exist, but which events they may list, who may trade them and how much visibility sports governing bodies will have into the money behind the contracts.
