Missouri sportsbooks hold tightly in March
Sports betting in Missouri produced US$36 million in revenue in March off of US$329 million in handle. That translated into a 10.9% hold, “modestly above other states that have reported March figures,” according to J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer, who reported the outcome on 30 April.
Of the US$36 million in win, US$12 million went back out in promotions and free play. That represented a third of winnings and 4% of handle, making it tax-deductible. The promotional percentage was a sequential decline from February, when promotions consumed 36% of revenue.
Despite slipping 2% in handle, DraftKings still led that market share with 36% to FanDuel’s 33%. Bet365 and Fanatics Sportsbook each took 8% of handle, while BetMGM captured 7%. Also in contention were Caesars Sportsbook (4%) and theScore Bet (3% of handle).
DraftKings narrowly led FanDuel in winnings, US$13.3 million to US$13.2 million. Handle for the two companies was US$119 million and US$107 million respectively. DraftKings held at 11.2% but FanDuel held one point higher.
Fanatics grabbed US$28 million in handle and US$1.4 million in win, compared to Bet365’s US$27 million of handle but US$2.8 million in revenue. BetMGM’s revenue was US$3.1 million, off handle share of US$25 million. It had the tightest hold, at 12.7%. Fanatics held the most loosely: 5%. Bet365 held at 10.3%.
Caesars nabbed US$1.2 million in win from US$13 million in handle, while theScore saw US$9 million in handle but US$800,000 in revenue. Caesars held at 9.2% and theScore at 8.9%.
David McKee is an award-winning journalist who has three decades of experience covering the gaming industry.
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The Backstory
How Missouri got here
Missouri’s online sports betting market moved from an aggressive, promo-fueled debut to steadier footing within its first quarter, setting up March’s tight performance. In December, the state’s first full month, operators posted a 19.2% hold and US$103.4 million in revenue on US$538 million in handle, yet they overspent on incentives, booking a net loss after US$125.1 million in promotional credits. FanDuel led both handle and revenue out of the gate, while DraftKings was a close second. Bet365 posted the tightest hold at 31.7% as brands chased acquisition at almost any cost, according to an early read of the launch environment in Missouri’s debut month.
By January, the market began to transition away from heavy giveaways and outlier hold rates. Promotional spending fell sharply from 119% of revenue in December to 61% in January as operators recalibrated. Handle leadership flipped: DraftKings seized an estimated 37% share versus FanDuel’s 33%, while Bet365 and BetMGM shared third at 9% each. Hold also narrowed toward single digits for several operators, with Bet365 still tight at 17% but BetMGM loosening to 3.7%. Revenue also redistributed, with DraftKings at US$23 million and FanDuel at US$20 million, as reported in January’s promotion pullback.
Promotions cool after a torrid launch
February extended the normalization trend. Promotional allowances dipped again to US$11 million, or 36% of monthly revenue, down from 61% in January. With US$277 million in handle and an 11.3% hold, operators generated US$31 million in gross. FanDuel ran slightly tighter than DraftKings — 12.9% versus 12% — but still trailed DraftKings in both handle and win. Bet365 stayed consistent at 10.7% hold, while Fanatics, BetMGM and Caesars clustered in the mid to high single digits. These shifts reflected operators’ pivot from splashy incentives to more disciplined spending, which analysts described as typical post-launch accounting and promo “noise” that begins to settle after the first few months, as detailed in February’s promotion slowdown.
The rapid retreat from December’s aggressive outlays matters for two reasons. First, promotions in Missouri are tax-deductible up to 25% of handle, creating a costly but time-limited opportunity for books to “buy” share. Second, as operators taper offers, true product and pricing advantages tend to surface. That dynamic was visible by March, when promotions equaled 33% of revenue and 4% of handle, down from 36% and 4% in February. The cadence suggests operators are calibrating toward sustainable customer economics without ceding the market’s early momentum.
Market share jostling among national brands
Inside the share race, DraftKings and FanDuel have defined Missouri’s early narrative while a second tier jockeys for positioning. After December leadership, FanDuel ceded the handle crown to DraftKings in January and February but remained neck and neck on revenue. That pattern continued in March, when DraftKings edged FanDuel in win, US$13.3 million to US$13.2 million, on respective handles of US$119 million and US$107 million. DraftKings held at 11.2%, with FanDuel at roughly one point higher.
Among the chasers, Bet365 and Fanatics each secured 8% of March handle, followed by BetMGM at 7%, Caesars at 4% and theScore Bet at 3%. The mix has been fluid. Fanatics and Bet365 have alternated third and fourth place by monthly revenue as hold has swung, while BetMGM’s lower hold has constrained outperformance despite solid handle. Caesars has consistently converted modest handle into respectable win, and Penn’s theScore Bet has carved out a small, steady niche after ESPN Bet’s November retirement enabled the rebrand, as noted at launch in Missouri’s debut month and in the first post-launch reset in January.
These shifts underscore how small differences in hold and promo pacing can swing monthly revenue rankings at the margin. Fanatics, for instance, posted US$28 million in March handle but only US$1.4 million in win on a 5% hold, while Bet365, with slightly lower handle, doubled Fanatics’ revenue on a 10.3% hold. BetMGM showed the opposite pattern, turning US$25 million in handle into US$3.1 million in win thanks to a 12.7% hold, the month’s tightest among major books.
Hold trends find a new normal
Missouri’s month-to-month hold has marched from December’s inflated 19.2% — a byproduct of aggressive promotions and an unusual first-month mix — down to 14.2% in January and 11.3% in February. March’s 10.9% sits modestly above other states’ early reads, a reminder that mix, parlay depth and promo accounting can nudge state-level results by a point or two.
Comparisons help frame the trajectory. In Maryland, March hold was 10.4% on US$595.2 million in handle, producing a 30.5% revenue jump as FanDuel led with a 12.1% hold and DraftKings trailed at 9.4%, according to Maryland’s March surge. New York, a more mature and price-competitive market with higher volume, posted a 9.3% March hold on US$2.3 billion in handle, with FanDuel again setting the pace at 10.8% and DraftKings at 10.2%, per New York’s March rebound. Missouri’s 10.9% sits between those two curves, consistent with an early-stage market moving off launch distortions but not yet entirely settled.
Operator-level dispersion in Missouri remains notable. FanDuel’s and DraftKings’ holds have clustered near or just above 11% in recent months, aided by parlay strength and product depth. Bet365’s steadier, double-digit holds reflect a disciplined book that has avoided the deepest promo troughs. BetMGM’s swing from a loose 3.7% in January to 12.7% in March shows how variance, promo cadence and mix can whipsaw results early on. Expect that spread to compress as customer cohorts mature and promotional liabilities roll off.
Why it matters beyond Missouri
Missouri’s first-quarter arc offers a microcosm of how new states settle after splashy launches. The shift from outlier holds and oversized promos toward steadier conversion is textbook, but the speed of the transition — from a net loss industrywide in December to a more rational 10–12% hold range by March — is faster than some prior rollouts. That bodes well for near-term tax receipts under a promo-deductible regime and signals that operators are prioritizing unit economics earlier in the cycle.
The competitive map also hints at how national brands may stack in similar mid-sized markets. DraftKings and FanDuel continue to split leadership, trading monthly edges on hold-driven beats. Bet365 is establishing a credible third-lane profile where it can keep double-digit holds without outsized spend, while Fanatics is still calibrating between handle growth and pricing discipline. BetMGM’s volatility underscores how quickly positioning can swing with product and promo tweaks.
For investors and policymakers, the stakes are clear. Sustained double-digit holds with controlled incentives can support stable revenue without the political backlash that comes with runaway promo deductions. Missouri’s March results, viewed alongside Maryland and New York, suggest the industry is learning to compress the messy early months into a shorter normalization window. The next tests will be how operators manage seasonal shifts — from NBA playoffs to baseball — and whether the current promo restraint holds as football approaches. If Missouri maintains its March balance of share, hold and spend, it may offer a template for efficient market maturation in upcoming launches.
