Robinhood diversifies prediction market offering ahead of World Cup

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The Backstory

From election contracts to sports trading

Robinhood’s expansion of its 2026 World Cup prediction market offering marks the latest step in a strategy that has moved quickly from political event contracts into territory long dominated by sportsbooks. The company began building momentum in prediction markets during the 2024 presidential election, when retail demand showed that event contracts could become a meaningful extension of its trading app rather than a niche derivatives product.

That early traction helped set the stage for a broader sports push. In the US, sports-linked prediction markets sit at the intersection of federal derivatives regulation and state gambling oversight. Robinhood has leaned into the federal framework by offering contracts through Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated venues, positioning them as financial products tied to event outcomes rather than wagers offered by licensed sportsbooks.

The current World Cup expansion is significant because it shows Robinhood is not treating prediction markets as a seasonal experiment. The company is preparing for one of the largest global sporting events, with contracts tied to match outcomes, the tournament winner and total goals. That scope gives Robinhood a chance to test whether sports prediction markets can scale beyond US football and college basketball into international competitions with broader audiences and more varied trading patterns.

Kalshi opened the door, then became part of a broader mix

Robinhood’s sports prediction-market rollout initially depended heavily on Kalshi, the federally regulated exchange that became central to its entry into event contracts. In March, the company launched a prediction markets hub in time for March Madness, allowing eligible Robinhood Derivatives customers to trade contracts on events through Kalshi inside the Robinhood app.

That launch followed an earlier setback. Robinhood had attempted to roll out sports contracts around Super Bowl LIX through Kalshi, but the CFTC intervened, forcing the company to pause the offering. The March Madness launch showed Robinhood was willing to return to sports contracts quickly, but under a more deliberate structure that emphasized federally regulated exchanges, account eligibility and restrictions for users involved in college sports.

Kalshi’s role gave Robinhood a fast route into sports event contracts without building all of the underlying exchange infrastructure itself. It also demonstrated the distribution power of Robinhood’s app. A Bloomberg-cited report in the current article said 25% of Kalshi’s March trading volume came through Robinhood users, illustrating how retail access can materially affect liquidity and volume in an emerging market.

But that reliance also created concentration risk. If Robinhood’s prediction-market business was to become a durable revenue line, the company needed more control over routing, liquidity and product design. The World Cup plan, which shifts a large share of tournament contracts to Rothera while leaving certain player-related and combination contracts on Kalshi, reflects that strategic recalibration.

Infrastructure became the next battleground

Robinhood’s partnership with Susquehanna International Group was the clearest sign that the company wanted to own more of the market structure behind its prediction products. The companies partnered to expand Robinhood’s prediction market offerings through a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing house, with Susquehanna acting as a day-one liquidity provider.

The agreement also enabled Robinhood to acquire MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed designated contract market, derivatives clearing organization and swap execution facility, while MIAXdx retained a 10% equity stake. The structure gave Robinhood the regulated plumbing needed to support more direct control over contract listings, market operations and clearing, all of which are central to scaling event contracts across multiple sports and categories.

Susquehanna’s role matters because prediction markets require liquidity to function effectively. Thin markets can create wide spreads, poor pricing and a weak user experience. By pairing Robinhood’s retail distribution with Susquehanna’s trading technology and liquidity capabilities, the companies are trying to build an ecosystem that resembles a financial exchange more than a traditional sportsbook.

The World Cup offering puts that infrastructure under a spotlight. Tournament markets can produce uneven trading flows, with liquidity surging around high-profile matches and dropping around less prominent fixtures. Robinhood’s statement that routing decisions will depend on liquidity and clarity of game outcomes suggests the company is building flexibility into the system, choosing venues based on execution quality rather than relying on one exchange for all products.

Football season showed the revenue potential

Robinhood’s interest in sports event contracts accelerated after football markets showed early commercial promise. The company later expanded into NFL parlays and prop bets, offering parlay-style trades and player-specific contracts that moved beyond simple yes-or-no outcomes. Those products brought Robinhood closer to the user experience of sports betting apps, even as the company framed them as event contracts.

The NFL expansion included preset combinations, where multiple outcomes had to be correct for a contract to pay out, and plans for custom combinations of up to 10 outcomes. That development was important because it showed Robinhood was not merely listing basic event contracts. It was adapting familiar sports-betting formats into a trading interface, potentially increasing engagement and average contract volume.

Analysts began to attach meaningful value to the effort. Piper Sandler later said prediction markets had generated about US$200 million for Robinhood, with sports betting and event contracts emerging as a material growth opportunity. The firm pointed to Robinhood’s Kalshi partnership, football-driven demand and a US$0.02 fee per contract split between the companies as drivers of the business.

Those economics explain why Robinhood is moving quickly before the 2026 World Cup. Event contracts can scale with volume, and major sports calendars create repeat engagement. Robinhood has said more than 16 billion event contracts have traded on its platform so far in 2026, already surpassing the 12 billion traded in all of 2025. The World Cup provides a global test of whether that growth can continue outside the domestic football cycle.

Regulators remain the central risk

The largest unresolved issue is whether sports prediction markets can keep expanding under federal derivatives rules while state regulators view similar products as gambling. Several state regulators have tried to block Kalshi from offering sports contracts, arguing that such markets fall within state gaming laws. Kalshi has challenged those efforts, creating legal disputes that could determine how far federally regulated event markets can go.

Robinhood’s experience around the Super Bowl showed that federal oversight can also interrupt product launches. The company has since emphasized compliance, eligible-account requirements and the use of regulated exchanges. Still, sports contracts raise policy questions that ordinary financial derivatives do not: consumer protection, problem gambling, athlete integrity, market manipulation and the boundary between investing and betting.

The World Cup may intensify that scrutiny. A tournament hosted across North America, with massive US viewership and dozens of matches, will attract attention from regulators, sportsbooks and policymakers. If prediction markets gain traction during the event, state gambling authorities may see them as direct competition operating outside state licensing and tax regimes. If they stumble, critics may argue that the products were not mature enough for mass retail distribution.

A more crowded World Cup race

Robinhood is not the only company trying to make the World Cup a showcase for prediction markets. Fanatics’ prediction market subsidiary and ADI Predictstreet launched a World Cup prediction market hub combining contracts, live statistics, news and fan content. ADI Predictstreet secured a partnership with FIFA as the governing body’s official prediction market partner for the 2026 tournament, giving that effort a different kind of institutional backing.

Fanatics brings a sports commerce and betting audience, while Robinhood brings financial-app scale and trading behavior. Their approaches highlight the competitive split forming in the market: sports-native companies are adding prediction contracts to fan experiences, while fintech platforms are adding sports outcomes to trading products. Both models are trying to capture users who want real-time engagement without necessarily using a conventional sportsbook.

For Robinhood, routing more World Cup volume through Rothera is about more than one tournament. It is a test of vertical integration, liquidity management and product resilience in a high-profile sports market. Success would strengthen the argument that prediction markets can become a recurring pillar of Robinhood’s business. Failure, or a regulatory backlash, would underscore how uncertain the category remains despite rapid growth and investor enthusiasm.