Analyst: World Cup set to accelerate online sports betting growth
World Cup-related betting in the US is projected to generate US$3.3 billion in handle, according to a study by Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella.
Pizzella felt that at least US$2.5 billion would be wagered on the tournament and possibly as much as US$4.1 billion. The World Cup, he wrote on May 18, “could be a short term catalyst for digital stocks.”
The analyst identified multiple catalytic factors to the 2026 tournament. He cited its expanded number of matches, as well as a larger adult populace that has access to online sports betting. Growth in first-time bettors was also singled out.
Using the online sports betting markets of Illinois, Oregon and Colorado as a microcosm for the US, Pizzella studied November and December 2022 soccer wagering for those states. He also added an assumed percentage of parlay wagers to arrive at an estimated total of soccer bets as part of overall online sports betting.
To calculate handle growth for 2026, Pizzella took into account a sizable increase in World Cup games. In 2022, 64 matches were played. In 2026, that number will be 104.
Pizzella also factored in a 20% increase in the number of Americans eligible to bet on sports since 2022, 135 million instead of 104 million. He also considered “the favorable time zones and increased media coverage/fan engagement for a World Cup hosted across North America, compared to 2022 in Qatar,” which was seven hours ahead of the US.
The plurality of World Cup handle was predicted to go to FanDuel: US$1.3 billion. DraftKings would be close behind with US$1.1 billion. Further back were BetMGM with US$250 million in handle, Caesars Sportsbook with US$120 million and theScore Bet with US$83 million. Fanatics Sportsbook and all other operators would split the remaining US$450 million in bets.
David McKee is an award-winning journalist who has three decades of experience covering the gaming industry.
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The Backstory
Why 2026 looks different
The 2026 World Cup arrives with conditions that are set to lift U.S. online sports betting beyond a typical cyclical bump. The tournament’s footprint is larger, the customer base is broader and the time zones favor North American engagement. FIFA’s expanded format to 104 matches and a monthlong schedule that runs June 11 to July 19 create more betting inventory across group and knockout stages. That matters for operators that monetize frequency, parlays and in-play markets.
Just as critical, the tournament will unfold in prime time for most U.S. viewers rather than in overnight or early morning windows, a drag that muted casual wagering in 2022. Add another four years of market legalization, product iteration and customer onboarding since Qatar, and the commercial setup looks materially different. The question is less whether the World Cup moves handle and more how that surge interacts with evolving strategies in sponsorships, content rights, product innovation and responsible gaming scrutiny.
Sponsorship money and distribution deals
FIFA has widened its commercial lanes, signaling that betting and adjacent services will be closer to the core broadcast and fan experience than in prior cycles. Kaizen Gaming’s Betano extended its relationship with FIFA to cover Europe and Latin America, building on its 2022 debut as the tournament’s first betting sponsor. The governing body’s own projections underscore the scale: a significantly expanded event penciled in at an estimated $11 billion in revenue. Read more on the sponsorship shift in our coverage of how Betano will sponsor the 2026 World Cup in Europe and Latin America.
Distribution is also moving closer to sportsbooks. FIFA’s deal with Stats Perform allows select betting operators to livestream matches online, an access point that can deepen engagement and spur in-play betting. Another new partner, prediction market ADI Predictstreet, reflects a broader experimentation with fan interactivity and market-making around the tournament. Those additions sit alongside non-betting tie-ins, including merchandising and events, that are designed to capture the World Cup’s cultural momentum across platforms and regions.
Prediction markets pressure the playbook
The most aggressive challenge to the status quo may come from prediction markets, which blur the lines between federally regulated event contracts and state-by-state sportsbook products. In a September note timed to NFL kickoff, J.P. Morgan’s Daniel Politzer framed exchange-style wagers as too tempting to ignore for major operators by opening avenues in states without legal sports betting and by offering tax-efficient economics. For details on the trade-offs he flagged, see our analysis on why prediction markets are “too good to pass up” for OSB operators.
Politzer also mapped the political and regulatory crosscurrents: state commissions, tribes and leagues worry about consumer protections, integrity and cannibalization, while responsible-gaming advocates caution against regulatory arbitrage via the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The World Cup could accelerate that debate. A spike in soccer engagement provides a live testing ground for exchange pricing, micro-markets and social trading features that legacy books have only partially replicated. If operators lean in, they risk blowback. If they hold back, they concede growth in non-OSB channels just as the sport captures mainstream attention.
iGaming momentum reshapes investor math
The run-up to the tournament also lands in a market where iGaming is outpacing OSB on quality of earnings. Macquarie’s Chad Beynon found that online operators generally beat first-quarter revenue targets, but iGaming-led models like Rush Street Interactive showed cleaner operating leverage than sports book-heavy peers. FanDuel and DraftKings exceeded top-line expectations yet tempered long-term guidance, a sign of continued volatility tied to sportsbook hold and reinvestment. For the broader context, read our wrap on why North American iGaming is beating OSB.
App download trends highlight the same split. Newer prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged, while legacy OSB apps recorded year-over-year declines through the 2025–2026 period, with exceptions in certain iGaming channels. That divergence matters going into a World Cup. Books that convert soccer traffic into casino cross-sell, retention offers and personalized content stand to capture more durable value than operators that rely solely on matchday turnover. The investment narrative is shifting toward lifetime value, not just handle spikes, which could influence how aggressively companies chase World Cup acquisition versus margin discipline.
Marketing land grab from New York to LatAm
Expect the World Cup’s final weekend to double as a brand showcase. Fanatics is turning the July 16–19 window into a live commerce and content funnel at the Javits Center, aligning Fanatics Fest with the semifinals and final. FIFA’s on-site presence and a cross-sport competition with $2 million in prizes give the retailer a high-visibility stage to blend merchandise, media and gameplay. The activation underscores how nonbook platforms are positioning to monetize soccer attention even when they are not taking bets. See how Fanatics Fest teamed up with FIFA ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
South of the border, digital marketers are racing to capture demand that will spike with matches in Mexico and U.S. time zones. Media Troopers expanded into Latin America with localized tools for Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking audiences, courting operators across Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina and Chile. The company is pitching geo-targeted campaigns and affiliate integrations built around soccer content, anticipating a lift from proximity, fan travel and prime-time broadcasts. For more on the buildout, read how Media Troopers announced a LatAm expansion for the 2026 World Cup.
The regional push is not just about new signups. It is a hedge against regulatory uncertainty and a way to seed omnichannel ecosystems before the tournament hits peak volume. With Mexican operators calling for a regulatory overhaul, marketers and partners are preparing to flex across jurisdictions and product sets, from sportsbook to free-to-play to affiliate content, to stay visible through the tournament cycle.
The stakes for operators and investors
For sportsbooks, the World Cup is a stress test of capital allocation and product differentiation. Sponsorships and streaming deals may lower acquisition costs, but only if they translate into higher engagement and cross-sell. Prediction markets present both an off-ramp around restrictive state regimes and a political on-ramp to new scrutiny. iGaming’s steadier cash generation raises the bar for how OSB defines success after the final whistle.
Investors will watch who can convert a one-time surge into persistent cohorts and who pays too much for transient traffic. The winners are likely to be those that marry soccer content rights with live product depth, lean into responsible gaming and use the World Cup’s scale to fortify databases for the NFL and NBA seasons that follow. The tournament will move the numbers. The strategy around it will decide how long those gains last.
