Prediction markets expected to win big from Thanksgiving NFL matchups
Investment bank Piper Sandler expects trading volume on prediction markets to surge in November, with volume on Kalshi and Polymarket projected to reach approximately US$10 billion.
NFL-related prediction contracts have contributed approximately 28% of that total volume so far, or around US$1.24 billion, according to the firm.
Piper Sandler Analyst Patrick Moley told CNBC that prediction market volumes increase when NFL teams come from US states where there is no legal sports betting.
“This is going to be a big week for prediction markets,” he said. “You have three NFL games that are going to be played on Thanksgiving. Three of the teams that are playing are in states where sports betting is illegal. And what we’ve seen so far in the NFL season is that when you have a team that’s in a market where sports betting is illegal, we see a volume bump.”
The Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup on Thanksgiving featured teams from Texas and Kansas, where mobile sports betting is not yet legal.
Additionally, Wisconsin currently does not have regulated online sports betting, and the Green Bay Packers faced the Detroit Lions on the same day.
The volume rise is expected to be matched by record TV audiences. Richard Deitsch, Media Reporter for The Athletic, reported that NFL games have averaged 17.7 million viewers through week 11, a 6% increase from last year and the highest average for that point in the season since 2015.
Meanwhile, DraftKings and FanDuel have recently signalled their intention to enter the space.
Charlotte Capewell brings her passion for storytelling and expertise in writing, researching, and the gambling industry to every article she writes. Her specialties include the US gambling industry, regulator legislation, igaming, and more.
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The Backstory
How a holiday football slate became a stress test
The surge in trading that Wall Street expects from Thanksgiving NFL games is not occurring in a vacuum. It follows months of rapid product rollouts, aggressive marketing and rising regulatory friction around sports-linked prediction markets. Platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood have pushed deeper into football this season, courting retail traders in states where mobile wagering is still limited and positioning event contracts as a stocklike alternative. The holiday spotlight, with three nationally televised games and a captive audience, is the industry’s clearest test of whether this model can scale under intensifying scrutiny.
The NFL has signaled it will not treat that growth lightly. In October, the NFL officially labeled prediction markets as sports betting, warning players and league personnel that trading on such platforms is prohibited because the products mimic traditional wagering but lack standard sportsbook safeguards. League officials cited gaps in information sharing, integrity monitoring and limits on manipulable markets. That stance raises the stakes for any Thanksgiving-fueled boom: volume and visibility may accelerate, but so will pressure to meet the guardrails that govern legal sportsbooks.
Platforms raced to capture NFL demand
That pressure has not stopped operators from leaning into football. In late summer, Robinhood launched NFL and college football prediction markets for the opening weeks of the season, describing the products as buyer-seller marketplaces that resemble stock trading rather than house-backed betting. The move is central to Robinhood’s push to become a one-stop shop for trading, and it dovetails with its revenue-sharing partnership with Kalshi, the federally regulated event-contracts exchange.
Early returns encouraged bulls. Piper Sandler told clients that sports event contracts are already a material contributor for the broker, with prediction markets driving about $200 million of incremental benefit for Robinhood. The firm raised its price target and highlighted record fall trading tied to NFL and NCAA demand on Kalshi, noting that Robinhood and Kalshi split per-contract fees. That backdrop helps explain why analysts expect a pronounced holiday bump: a concentrated run of marquee games, strong TV ratings and pent-up demand in states where mobile betting remains off-limits can funnel activity toward any platform that lists sports outcomes, even if the products are framed as “contracts” rather than bets.
The question is durability. Those same analysts warn that state-level challenges to sports markets on event exchanges could curtail growth or force product redesigns. The NFL’s posture also makes institutional partnerships harder to secure until platforms adopt sportsbook-style controls. Thanksgiving volume may validate the customer appetite, but conversion into a steady, compliant business is a separate, slower climb.
Branding fights spotlight the gray zone
The line between prediction markets and sportsbooks is also playing out in marketing. Kalshi and Polymarket were accused of using NFL and NFLPA branding without approval in promotions for opening-week matchups, including team logos and player images. The NFL has a long history of enforcing its intellectual property and said it is willing to work with platforms that meet sportsbook demands, including robust data sharing. Kalshi has argued in court that meeting those requirements is too costly, underscoring the commercial tension: the most direct path to acquiring sports traders is clear, league-aligned branding, but the licensing and compliance needed to secure that alignment could change the product’s economics.
This gray zone matters for Thanksgiving. If platforms lean on team references, player names or game imagery to drive retail signups around the holiday slate, they risk fresh enforcement or takedown demands. If they avoid explicit branding, they may blunt the promotional punch during one of the year’s most watched sports windows. Either choice carries cost, and the outcome will inform how prediction markets market themselves during future tentpole events such as the playoffs and the Super Bowl.
Regulatory friction is the main variable
Beyond the NFL, state regulators and federal overseers are probing how sports-linked event contracts fit under gambling and commodities rules. Piper Sandler has flagged efforts in multiple states to block Kalshi sports markets under gaming laws, setting up court fights over jurisdiction and scope. Robinhood’s partnership ties its upside to Kalshi’s ability to keep listing sports, which is why the broker’s bullish narrative sits beside warnings about legal uncertainty.
Market design is shifting in real time. Kalshi has tested contracts that resemble prop bets, while rivals tailor language and settlement rules to emphasize trading mechanics over wagering. Those tweaks aim to fit within event-contract frameworks while offering the outcomes sports fans care about. The risk is practical: the more a contract looks like a bet on a player prop or spread, the easier it is for regulators and leagues to treat it as betting and demand sportsbook-grade controls. A holiday surge that is concentrated in player and game props could hasten that treatment.
Consumers are trading more, and lenders are taking note
The macro lens is not favorable. Banks are beginning to view the growth of online wagering and event trading as a consumer credit issue. Bank of America warned lenders that prediction markets and sports betting introduce a new risk vector, citing research that links legal online betting to lower credit scores, higher bankruptcy risk and more debts sent to collections. The bank pointed to gamified interfaces and rapid-fire wagering patterns, with particular vulnerability among younger men and lower-income users.
That analysis matters because it shapes how policymakers, and potentially payments networks, respond to spikes in activity. If Thanksgiving trading coincides with a fresh wave of marketing and signups, lenders may pressure platforms to adopt stronger affordability checks or spending controls. Any move by banks or card networks to tighten access would hit transaction volumes quickly, especially on mobile where funding ease is a growth driver.
What to watch after the holiday spike
Thanksgiving volume will offer a clean read on three questions. First, are prediction markets adding net-new sports traders in no-betting states or just shifting action from offshore and daily fantasy? Second, does NFL scrutiny deter platform growth or push operators toward sportsbook-like compliance that could stabilize the category? Third, do banks, card networks or state regulators respond to a visible surge with new limits or guidance?
Momentum is real: Robinhood’s early revenue lift, Kalshi’s record fall trading and the NFL’s audiences create a strong demand signal. But the next leg of growth depends on choices that carry cost. Embracing sportsbook-style guardrails could unlock league cooperation but compress margins. Staying in the event-exchange lane preserves the thesis but invites tighter oversight and branding battles. The holiday week will provide data. The policy reaction will decide how much of that demand converts into a durable business after the leftovers are gone.
