Prediction markets are gaming’s next big shortcut to 50-state access
Prediction markets are creeping into the national spotlight and depending who you ask, they’re either the future of federally regulated gambling or a dressed-up loophole designed to skip the state-by-state slog.
“I believe that these prediction markets can be classified as gambling,” Jonathan Sprung from MediaTroopers said during SBC Summit North America. “I also think that’s a definition many people associated with igaming will agree with. It’s similar to the debate on daily fantasy sports, which many people view as some form of sports betting, but legally, it has a different definition.”
The argument isn’t new. Fantasy sports, sweepstakes casinos, and social games have all tested the edges of what qualifies as gambling. But prediction markets have federal attention. “The CFTC … has said that prediction markets are at the federal level,” Jonathan said. “Some states have issued cease-and-desist letters against these operators, but those fell flat because of the original federal ruling.”
The upside? If approved, operators could offer betting-like functionality in all 50 states.
Some brands are already eyeing that opportunity. Sporttrade, for example, has applied with the CFTC to offer prediction markets; it’s a move that signals where the industry may be heading, even if they haven’t officially pivoted yet. The potential for nationwide reach without the patchwork of state licenses is too tempting for emerging and established operators alike.
Jonathan’s hot take: “I think there’s potential for one of the major players in sports betting to make the first move to be regulated by the CFTC as a prediction provider. That move would immediately allow them to offer prediction markets in all 50 states.”
That strategy disrupted the gaming space once before. Now prediction markets could be the next tool used to scale at a pace state regulators can’t match.
So what is the resistance?
“They’re skipping a lot of the regulations and restrictions legal sports betting platforms face,” he said. “Some people have safety and regulation concerns over how these prediction platforms operate.”
From a regulatory perspective, the conversation now moves to federal versus state authority. For tribal operators, the shift is even more precarious.
“If the federal government says we will allow prediction markets in all 50 states, it raises issues for tribal operators looking to protect their gambling interests. There’s the potential that this could end with several legal battles between the CFTC and tribes.”
This change is not hypothetical. It’s unfolding in real time.
“Last year, it was sweeps. This year it’s prediction markets,” Jonathan said. “Crypto.com, Robinhood, Kalshi — they took over Times Square. This is not fringe anymore.”
Industry stakeholders are watching this play unfold with interest, caution, and urgency. The conversation is no longer just about betting. It’s about control, access, and defining the future of regulated gambling in America.
The expansion beyond sports could raise more complicated ethical questions.
“You can make bets on the next Pope, ongoing lawsuits, and the prices of stocks. It’s a prediction,” he said. “Most US states don’t even allow betting on politics, but as these prediction platforms aren’t regulated, you can make predictions on pretty much anything you can think of.”
Even as he cautioned against moral overreach, Jonathan emphasized that boundaries will be tested. “As this becomes more mainstream, the CFTC is likely to set down some boundaries and guidelines on what predictions are acceptable. Until then, the market can continue as it is.”
The regulatory map is being redrawn in real time. If Jonathan’s prediction holds, the industry is on the brink of a shift that could leapfrog traditional sports betting models and permanently sideline state-by-state approval. Whether states get on board or dig in, prediction markets are speeding ahead and the industry will have no choice but to keep up.
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