Polymarket targets Japan approval by 2030

Charlotte Capewell

22 May 2026 at 12:46pm UTC-4

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Polymarket is preparing to pursue government approval in Japan and has appointed a local representative as it explores entry into the market.

According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter said that the company is aiming for authorization from the Japanese government by 2030. They also say that Polymarket’s Japan strategy is being led by Mike Eidlin, who previously worked as Head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter.

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Neither Eidlin nor Polymarket has publicly confirmed details of the arrangement, nor has Japan’s justice ministry.

These expansion efforts come as Polymarket faces increased competition from other prediction market platforms like Kalshi. The company reported US$10.3 billion in monthly notional trading volume in April, a 9% month-over-month decline.

Polymarket restricts access to users in Japan, citing “regulatory requirements.” Under Japan’s Penal Code, habitual gambling can carry penalties of up to three years in prison, while operating gambling businesses can result in up to five years in jail.

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A company spokesperson told Bloomberg that there is “meaningful organic interest from users” in Japan and across the rest of Asia, and that Polymarket is “always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways.”

The company also maintains a Japanese account on the social media network X, which has more than 53,000 followers, and plans to build awareness while awaiting potential government approval.

Charlotte Capewell brings her passion for storytelling and expertise in writing, researching, and the gambling industry to every article she writes. Her specialties include the US gambling industry, regulator legislation, igaming, and more.

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The Backstory

Setting the stage in Tokyo

Polymarket’s plan to seek government approval in Japan by 2030 caps months of quiet groundwork and signals how prediction markets are testing new regulatory frontiers in Asia. The company has tapped a former crypto executive with Japan experience to lead the effort and restricted local access while it scopes a compliant path forward under one of the region’s stricter gambling regimes. Bloomberg first detailed the push and the 2030 horizon, citing people familiar with the matter, underscoring the measured timeline likely required to align a blockchain-enabled betting product with Japan’s criminal code and consumer protection priorities. That report also noted a growing base of organic interest in Japan and across Asia even as Polymarket’s monthly notional volumes slipped in April, a reminder that demand and compliance may move on different clocks. For background, see Bloomberg’s coverage of Polymarket’s Japan strategy at Bloomberg’s global push report.

Polymarket’s Japan calculus rests on two tracks: regulatory receptivity and market size. While the platform still blocks Japanese users, it has maintained a Japanese-language presence on social media to build awareness, a common tactic for firms preparing for a long approval runway. The 2030 target suggests the company expects incremental policy shifts or carve-outs rather than a rapid overhaul of gambling law. It also acknowledges a crowded competitive set, with rivals like Kalshi investing in brand and liquidity. A Japan foothold could offer credibility across Asia if Tokyo eventually codifies a framework that differentiates event contracts from illegal gambling.

Yet the risk is symmetry: a high-profile push into a tightly policed market can harden scrutiny. The policy debate in Japan links online betting to addiction and social harms, and regulators have moved to curb gray-market growth that blossomed during the pandemic. Any misstep could jeopardize local ambitions and complicate partnerships with Japanese financial or media firms needed to reach retail users at scale.

Tokyo’s clampdown reshapes the odds

Japan tightened oversight of online gambling last year, prioritizing addiction mitigation and enforcement against offshore operators. A revised law that took effect Sept. 25 bans illegal online casinos from launching or advertising on social platforms and YouTube, and presses national and local governments to expand public awareness efforts. The push followed a National Police Agency survey estimating millions of residents had gambled online and headline-grabbing cases involving entertainers. For details, see coverage of Japan’s new law targeting online casinos and celebrity endorsements.

These moves matter for Polymarket because Japanese law takes a narrow view of permissible wagering. Horse racing, certain sports betting and pachinko are legal, but most other gambling is not. Habitual gambling and operating gambling businesses carry criminal penalties. That baseline makes any event-contract platform seek a different classification or secure a specific exemption. The more the government equates crypto-fueled markets with unlicensed casinos, the steeper the climb.

Still, the new rules also signal what “good behavior” would look like: strict marketing controls, age and identity checks, and cooperation with authorities. If prediction markets can demonstrate utility beyond speculation, such as information discovery and price-based forecasting for businesses or institutions, they may find limited pilot avenues. But in Japan, utility alone rarely offsets consumer risk in regulators’ eyes without mature guardrails and local intermediaries.

U.S. compliance template, exported

Polymarket’s recent U.S. pivot offers a playbook it can point to in Tokyo. The company withdrew from the United States in 2022 after a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, then reengineered its structure to return under an intermediated, regulated framework. In July it acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, QCEX, for $112 million, and this year secured an amended order that effectively places it within the supervised futures market perimeter. The firm says it enhanced surveillance, market supervision and reporting to comply with exchange rules. See reporting on Polymarket’s CFTC approval and U.S. relaunch.

That trajectory carries signaling value in Japan. Policymakers can observe a regulated instance of the product, its intermediary controls and how it separates retail access from core market operations. The association with established financial infrastructure, plus a marquee investment from a major exchange operator, gives Polymarket institutional sheen it lacked during its initial, more permissive phase. It also equips the company to argue that prediction markets can be supervised like other derivatives venues, not as casinos.

The counterpoint is that U.S. supervision hinges on derivatives law, not criminal gambling statutes. Japan’s legal architecture is different, and the burden of proof may be higher to show that event contracts do not constitute gambling under the Penal Code. Demonstrating robust compliance in one jurisdiction helps, but it will not replace the need for bespoke Japanese solutions and, likely, local partners who can vouch for operational standards.

Sports branding frictions raise new questions

Brand and content strategy is another pressure point for prediction markets aiming at mainstream users. Kalshi and Polymarket have drawn scrutiny for using National Football League and NFL Players Association branding, team logos and player images without formal authorization in promotions. The NFL has suggested it could engage with prediction markets if they meet sportsbook-level safeguards, but teams and leagues closely police intellectual property and integrity risks. For more, see coverage of alleged NFL and NFLPA branding misuse by Kalshi and Polymarket.

In Japan, where corporate and league IP protections are rigorously enforced, similar tactics would be untenable. Any attempt to localize growth through sports tie-ins would require licensing and deep compliance coordination. The episode underscores how aggressive marketing can undermine a regulatory case. It also previews the commercial complexity of aligning prediction markets with incumbent sports and media rights holders who expect data sharing, integrity monitoring and revenue sharing akin to sportsbook deals.

Growth narrative meets regulatory gravity

Global projections for online gambling and igaming continue to climb, with multiple research firms forecasting double-digit compound annual growth rates through 2030. Analysts cite smartphone penetration, faster connectivity and liberalizing laws in parts of the United States, Latin America and Asia Pacific as demand drivers. For context, see market outlooks that peg the sector around $153 billion by the end of the decade, including Grand View Research’s estimate and Research Insights’ similar projection.

Prediction markets sit adjacent to that growth curve, drawing in both retail users and institutional interest as liquidity deepens. But the same forces propelling expansion — mobile access, social features and cross-border platforms — also sharpen regulators’ focus on addiction, advertising and jurisdictional leakage. Japan’s recent crackdown and explicit curbs on social media promotions show how fast the policy pendulum can swing in mature economies with strong consumer-protection norms.

For Polymarket, the pitch to Japanese authorities will likely center on differentiation: intermediated access through regulated brokers, surveillance and reporting modeled on futures markets, and limits on market types and marketing. The company’s U.S. reentry offers evidence it can operate under tight rules. Its Japan timeline implies it expects to prove that case over years, not months.

The stakes are more than market entry. A successful authorization in Japan would set a precedent in a country known for conservative gambling policy, potentially influencing how other Asian regulators classify event contracts. Failure, or a reputational stumble tied to marketing or IP issues, could solidify the view that prediction markets are indistinguishable from illegal gambling. The next moves — partnerships, product scope and public-policy engagement — will show whether Polymarket can translate its compliance gains abroad into one of the industry’s toughest markets.