Flutter a strong “Buy,” Jefferies analyst notes

David McKee

8 July 2025 at 12:58pm UTC-4

Source: Shutterstock

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Jefferies Equity Research analyst James Wheatcroft put a Wall Street-high US$380-per-share price target on Flutter Entertainment stock in a 7 July investor note.

“We see a multiyear growth opportunity in the USA, driven by rising population penetration and new state legalizations,” Wheatcroft wrote. “Flutter has a large, stable, and diversified International business with podium positions across many key gambling geographies globally.”

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Wheatcroft observed that discussion of Flutter by investors had pivoted on slowing growth of sports betting handle in the US. He attributed this to more-rational promotional activity and to the available products, not to macroeconomic factors.

“These trends and their consequential impact on reducing handle growth are in line with both Flutter and Jefferies expectations,” Wheatcrot continued. He said that he saw 17% revenue growth and 42% cash-flow improvement by 2030, even without new jurisdictions coming online or handle growth speeding up.

Waxing historical, Wheatcroft pointed out that handle in the US had grown 30% across the first three quarters of 2024, before slowing to 15% in the fourth. It decelerated even further, to 13%, in 2025’s first quarter. Flutter fared worse than the rest of the market, with handle growth going from 36% to 12% in 2024’s final quarter, to 8%.

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Wheatcroft attributed some of this to fewer states incepting sports betting, with only North Carolina having its first full season in the late 2024-to-early 2025 period. He added, “the promotional environment is easing, with operators issuing relatively fewer free bets. As free bets are fully captured in handle, an easing of the promotional environment naturally drags on handle growth.”

One less round of NFL play in 2024’s fourth quarter also was a factor, as was a 2% falloff in NBA spectators during the 2024-5 regular season. Flutter executives observed that “NBA match-ups were less competitive than in prior years, with stronger teams matched against much weaker opposition,” in Wheatcroft’s words.

After initially downplaying macroeconomic factors, Wheatcroft allowed that in early 2025 they “may have influenced consumer betting habits.” However, he also noted that igaming “clearly remains robust.” Wheatcroft pointed to igaming handle that continued to grow at or near 30% across the past three quarters.

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The incursion into sports betting by prediction markets like Kalshi also was pointed out. The latter experienced handle of $500 million from taking wagers on March Madness.

Another diminution of handle growth was the increasing popularity of in-game wagers and similar wagers, which Wheatcroft characterized as “higher-margin but lower-wager products, like parlays (combination or multiples bets). An ongoing shift in consumer preferences towards lower-stake products naturally drags on handle growth, though the higher-margin nature of these products provides an offsetting boost” to revenue.

Lastly, Wheatcroft returned to the topic of rationalized promotional spending, observing that such largesse was most prominent when new states launched wagering. “As the cadence of new US state launches has slowed over recent years, the overall mix of more expensive customer acquisition bonuses is falling, driving a headline easing of the promotional environment.” Not only Flutter, through its FanDuel subsidiary, but BetMGM had spent less in early 2025 than previously.