Coinbase to announce prediction market launch this week

Abi Bray

15 December 2025 at 6:00am UTC-5

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Crypto exchange Coinbase Global will be announcing the launch of a prediction market, along with tokenized equities, this week.

According to Bloomberg, Coinbase will announce the two products at a showcase on December 17.

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Coinbase executives have previously disclosed their interest in entering both prediction markets and tokenized equities, with the latter expected to be launched in-house, rather than through partners.

Screenshots have been circulating on the social media network X for several weeks, hinting at a functioning app.

Coinbase has been pushing to become an “everything app,” where users can trade across a range of assets and markets. The introduction of prediction markers and tokenized equities is another step in this direction.

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Financial services platform Robinhood Markets released Kalshi’s prediction markets on its platform earlier this year.

Last week, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini obtained a designated contract market license after a five-year application process, allowing it to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket in the US prediction market sector.

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The Backstory

How Coinbase’s “everything app” vision set the stage

Coinbase has telegraphed a pivot into event-based trading for months as it seeks to become a one-stop marketplace for on-chain assets. Executives sketched the roadmap publicly, saying the company would roll out a U.S. prediction platform first, then expand internationally as approvals arrive. In outlining the plan, leaders framed prediction contracts and tokenized stocks as complementary rails to bring more traditional finance activity on-chain. The company’s vice president of product cast the effort as part of building an exchange for “everything” people want to trade. That positioning surfaced in reporting that Coinbase would add prediction markets and tokenized equities to its offerings, underscoring a strategy to broaden beyond crypto spot trading and into regulated, event-linked derivatives and equity instruments.

Coinbase’s timeline has also been shaped by rivals’ advances. Robinhood added Kalshi’s contracts earlier this year, and Polymarket has been aggressively expanding liquidity. Competition is spilling into M&A: Polymarket bought QCEX for $112 million to regain a U.S. foothold, while DraftKings has weighed a move into prediction markets by exploring a purchase of Railbird Exchange. Coinbase’s entry, even with its considerable brand recognition and distribution, lands in a market already moving fast.

The field gets more crowded — and more capitalized

The competitive bar rose in recent weeks as deep-pocketed exchanges secured federal permissions and infrastructure to list event contracts. Gemini cleared a five-year regulatory gauntlet to obtain a designated contract market license, paving the way for Gemini Titan to offer yes-or-no event contracts to U.S. customers. The firm says web trading will lead, with mobile to follow, and framed prediction markets as a pillar of a broader derivatives push. Investors quickly marked up the newly listed stock on the announcement, signaling expectations that a well-funded entrant could expand the market.

Kraken is building a U.S.-native derivatives stack through M&A. It confirmed a $100 million deal for the CFTC-regulated Small Exchange, a step the company says creates the foundation for a new generation of U.S. derivatives markets under federal oversight. In comments to Complete iGAMING, Kraken also acknowledged interest in prediction markets, aligning it with a cohort of exchanges moving under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s umbrella. The acquisition positions Kraken to compete with incumbents on federally supervised rails and could accelerate listings once the firm finalizes product design and compliance protocols. The move signals a push by crypto-native players to convert regulatory licenses into mainstream distribution for event contracts.

Regulatory fault lines define the near-term risk

The core strategic question for Coinbase and peers is not demand — trading volumes have climbed — but which regulator sets the rules and where lines are drawn between derivatives and gambling. Firms have coalesced around a federal-first model, arguing CFTC supervision should preempt state-by-state gaming rules. That strategy is now getting organized. Kalshi and Crypto.com launched the Coalition for Prediction Markets to advocate for federal oversight and consistent integrity standards. The group includes Coinbase, Robinhood and Underdog, and it is pressing back on state regulators seeking to treat event contracts as gambling products. The coalition warned that a fragmented approach could push users offshore and urged harmonized insider-trading protections and compliance expectations across jurisdictions. Its launch followed a spate of clashes, including Connecticut’s move to halt sports event contracts and formal guidance from Nevada that such contracts constitute wagering, even when listed on federally regulated exchanges.

That tension is shaping market design. Kalshi’s expansion into sports event contracts invited legal disputes in states such as Nevada, New Jersey and Massachusetts. RSBIX filed to become a designated contract market, reviving a prior attempt to list sports event contracts, and daily fantasy firm PrizePicks secured NFA approval under a subsidiary to prepare a predictions offering. Coinbase’s approach — anchoring to CFTC jurisdiction while courting mass-market users — will be tested against this backdrop of federal-state conflict.

Tokenized equities emerge as the second prong

The other half of Coinbase’s expansion plan is tokenized stocks, which the company has suggested it intends to launch in-house. Supporters see tokenized equities as a gateway to 24/7 trading, programmable settlement and broader global access. Coinbase has tied the effort to what it describes as a more defined U.S. rule set for crypto-based trading, positioning tokenized shares as part of bringing capital markets on-chain. While the specifics of issuance, custody and corporate actions remain important open questions, the product would strengthen the company’s pitch that it offers a single venue for digital assets, event contracts and traditional exposures. That turns Coinbase’s prediction market debut into more than a one-off; it is a step in a broader bundling strategy that rivals may need to match.

The integration of tokenized equities could also blunt cyclicality. Event markets thrive on news flow, but tokenized stocks would tap retail’s familiarity with equities while benefiting from crypto’s instant settlement and global access. The pairing could create cross-sell loops: users drawn by headline-driven event contracts might graduate into tokenized equities, and equity traders might sample prediction markets during earnings season or macro releases.

Integrity stresses complicate product design

Coinbase enters as the sector confronts questions about manipulation and insider behavior. A recent episode underscored the risk: Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong, on a quarterly call, deliberately said keywords that matched contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, triggering payouts and highlighting how “mention” markets can be gamed by the very people being tracked. The company described the comments as lighthearted and said staff are barred from participating in prediction markets. Still, the incident spotlighted the CFTC’s prohibition on contracts “readily susceptible to manipulation” and the need for tighter listing standards and surveillance. Coverage of the stunt noted that such mention markets were a small slice of volume but illustrated the design trade-offs exchanges face.

These integrity concerns are central to the coalition’s agenda and to state regulators’ objections. For Coinbase, which expects to serve a large retail base, building trust through clear exclusion lists, conflict policies and market-halting tools will be as critical as user experience. The company’s scale may help set norms — or make it a target if lapses occur.

What’s at stake in the next phase

The race is now as much about rulemaking as product. Coinbase’s U.S.-first rollout of prediction markets, followed by an international push, will test whether a federally supervised model can fend off state-level challenges. Competitors like Gemini and Kraken are armed with licenses and infrastructure to move quickly, and retail platforms are circling. If the coalition succeeds in establishing national standards and insulating event contracts from gambling classifications, exchanges could unlock a sizable audience that prefers regulated venues over offshore alternatives. If not, growth could fragment and slow as firms reroute around state restrictions.

Against that uncertainty, Coinbase’s bundling of prediction markets with tokenized equities is a bid to make the category unavoidable for mainstream investors. Whether that bet pays off will depend on execution, regulator-by-regulator outcomes and how the company addresses the manipulation pitfalls that recent episodes exposed. The next few months — as launches, listings and legal tests converge — will show whether prediction markets become a durable pillar of U.S. finance or a niche that big platforms struggle to scale.