Polymarket gets Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval to launch in the US

Abi Bray

26 November 2025 at 6:59am UTC-5

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Polymarket has revealed that it has received regulatory clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to resume operations in the US.

Polymarket previously withdrew from the US in 2022 after paying a US$1.4 million fine for operating a futures contract platform without a license.

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Announcing its comeback on social media platform, X, the group said, “We’re thrilled to share that we’ve received CFTC approval for intermediation, paving the way for seamless access to polymarkets through registered brokers & financial institutions. Coming soon to a trading platform near you.”

In July the prediction market acquired QCEX, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for US$112 million. This paved the way for the legal and regulatory infrastructure required for compliance.

The approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission comes in the form of an Amended Order of Designation, a move that transforms Polymarket into a fully regulated, intermediated contract-market platform.

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Additionally, the prediction market has enhanced its surveillance systems, market supervision protocols, clearing procedures, and compliance with Part 16 reporting obligations under US exchange regulations as part of its return.

Last month, New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange invested US$2 billion in the prediction market, bringing the platform’s valuation up to US$8 billion.

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The Backstory

How Polymarket got back to the starting line

Polymarket’s return to the United States was not an overnight pivot. The platform left the U.S. in 2022 after paying a $1.4 million penalty for operating an unregistered futures venue. The company reworked its approach this year by buying the plumbing of legitimacy, acquiring derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCEX for $112 million. That maneuver cleared the way for a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Sept. 3, enabling a relaunch through registered intermediaries. Coverage of the decision framed it as a watershed for prediction markets, with some seeing a path to mainstream finance and others calling the venues “digital casinos.” For a detailed account of the approval and the controversy it sparked, see this report on the CFTC’s go-ahead for Polymarket, which also notes the firm’s prior U.S. exit and QCEX acquisition.

The green light follows a broader shift in the market’s legal landscape. Rival exchange Kalshi prevailed in a court fight with the CFTC last year over event contracts, emboldening proponents of regulated prediction markets. Meanwhile, Polymarket has been courting institutional legitimacy and political clout, including adding Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board, a move announced in a PR Newswire statement.

Regulatory thaw meets internal dissent

The CFTC’s accommodation has not been uniformly embraced inside the agency. On the day no-action relief cleared Polymarket’s U.S. return, departing Commissioner Kristin Johnson warned that prediction markets are pulling in unprecedented retail money without guardrails to match. In a Brookings farewell address, she criticized what she called “rent or buy” licensing—where companies obtain approvals and auction them—arguing it risks weak oversight and consumer harm. Her remarks, summarized here, underscore rising unease: Johnson’s parting warning on prediction markets flagged leverage, custody and incentive risks familiar from crypto blowups.

Johnson’s concerns land as federal policymakers attempt to present a coherent front on digital asset and event-market oversight. A recent joint statement by the SEC and CFTC set out areas of cooperation on spot crypto but left key questions open, a point Johnson echoed. The agencies’ joint crypto statement signals coordination but does not settle the boundary issues that prediction markets now test.

States press their case on gambling law

The federal approval track does not immunize prediction markets from state challenges. Arizona’s top gaming regulator argued that sports-related event contracts offered by federally overseen platforms look like illegal gambling under state law. In a sharply worded letter to CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham, Arizona Department of Gaming Director Jackie Johnson said buying a contract on a game’s outcome is functionally the same as a sportsbook wager and violates the state’s 2020 Gaming Act. The pushback arrives as Arizona and several other states issue cease-and-desist notices to operators. Read more on the state-federal clash in Arizona’s critique of the CFTC.

These conflicts are not new. When exchanges floated sports event futures in the past, a combination of league opposition and regulatory skepticism often stopped them. In 2020, for instance, ErisX withdrew a plan for NFL event contracts after a CFTC review and industry blowback, a step reflected in a contemporaneous CFTC press note and reported widely at the time. Today’s disputes suggest the old fault lines remain, even as federal policy shows signs of warming.

New market entrants test the lane

Polymarket’s progress has coincided with a surge of applications and litigation around the edges of event trading. Regulated sports betting exchange RSBIX, in partnership with Matchbook, recently filed to launch event contracts and is seeking designation as a contract market. The bid revives a strategy that stalled five years ago and signals pent-up demand among operators positioning for a regulated framework. Details are in RSBIX’s application to the CFTC, which also traces the group’s earlier attempt with ErisX that was withdrawn after opposition.

At the same time, firms adjacent to prediction markets are challenging how the CFTC handles intermediary licenses. Fantasy operator Sleeper Markets sued the agency and Acting Chair Pham, alleging interference with its futures commission merchant application after the National Futures Association deemed it complete. Sleeper argues the delay advantaged a rival whose application advanced during the same period and seeks a court order to block further interference. The complaint highlights a contentious on-ramp for would-be intermediaries that might serve platforms like Polymarket. The filing is summarized here: Sleeper Markets’ lawsuit over alleged license obstruction.

The stakes for retail, Wall Street and Washington

Prediction markets sit at a policy crossroads: part market-based information tool, part consumer product with gambling-like dynamics. Advocates argue event contracts can surface real-time probabilities and hedge real-world risks. Critics see little economic purpose beyond speculation and worry about consumer harm, data integrity and conflicts with state gambling law.

Policymakers appear to be experimenting with a more permissive but intermediated model. Polymarket’s path—acquiring a regulated exchange and clearing venue, then operating through registered brokers—suggests the CFTC expects institutional rails, robust surveillance and Part 16 reporting to mitigate risks. Yet Johnson’s exit warning and Arizona’s challenge show that consensus is distant. If more states crack down while the federal regime opens the door, operators may face a patchwork that complicates national scale.

The commercial appetite is clear. Investors have valued the leading platforms in the billions, and proponents on Wall Street now argue the category could rival traditional equities in scope. But growth will depend on whether federal and state regulators can align on what these markets are for and how to police them. The next tests will come quickly: pending exchange applications, state enforcement actions and potential court rulings on intermediary licensing could redraw the map. For now, Polymarket’s clearance marks a notable turn from penalty to permission—one that may define how far prediction markets move from the fringe into the financial mainstream.