NBA partners with Kalshi and Polymarket as Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges, signs MOU with CFTC
The National Basketball Association (NBA) on Monday announced a set of agreements “to establish a comprehensive framework for NBA-related prediction markets,” including the designation of Kalshi and Polymarket “as the league’s Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges.”
The move comes despite strong opposition from authorities, sports betting operators and tribal gaming groups as to how prediction markets are overseen, which currently falls under the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
In the Monday release, the NBA notes that “The agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket put in place significant integrity protections for NBA-related markets, including limitations on permissible markets, affirmative prohibitions on trading NBA event contracts by league and team personnel, and information-sharing obligations relating to investigations and suspicious trading.”
Aside from the designation of the two prediction markets as preferred exchanges, the NBA also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC, “focused on cooperation and information sharing related to NBA prediction markets. The agreement reflects a shared commitment to ensuring that NBA-related prediction markets are subject to appropriate regulatory oversight and integrity protections,” indicated the sporting body.
Speaking of the agreements, NBA Head of Media Distribution & Partnerships Scott Kauffman-Ross noted “As this category develops, we believe it is important to work constructively with regulators and operators to help ensure that appropriate safeguards are in place. These partnerships represent an important step in establishing a framework that creates new opportunities to engage our fans.”
Under the Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges agreement, Kalshi and Polymarket will have rights to use NBA Intellectual Property (IP), marketing rights and promotional activations across media channels in the US. They will also receive official NBA data from sports technology group Sportradar, the NBA’s Offiial Data Distribution Partner, “to operate and settle authorized NBA-related markets.”
Aside from its agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket, the NBA also noted that it “as expanded its agreement with DraftKings to include prediction markets and nationwide promotion.” The sporting body furthered that it “plans to expand its relationship with other current official sports betting partners, and others in the industry, in the coming weeks.”
The NBA furthered that “All Authorized Prediction Market Operator partnerships will include enhanced integrity obligations specific to prediction markets and market restrictions aligned with the NBA’s latest sports betting restrictions.”
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The Backstory
Prediction markets move from the fringe to league partnerships
The NBA’s agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket mark a turning point in the fight over how sports prediction markets should fit into the U.S. gambling and financial regulatory systems. For years, sports leagues built commercial relationships around state-licensed sportsbooks, official data feeds and integrity monitoring. Prediction markets have now forced a parallel track, operating through federal derivatives rules rather than the state-by-state sports betting framework that has governed U.S. wagering since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018.
Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade event contracts tied to future outcomes, including sports results. Their growth has created an opening for leagues to secure data, branding and oversight arrangements before those markets become more difficult to police. It also has sharpened opposition from casino operators, tribal gaming interests and state regulators that argue sports event contracts function much like wagers but avoid the licensing, taxation and consumer protection obligations imposed on sportsbooks.
The NBA’s move did not come in isolation. It followed a series of steps by leagues, data companies and regulators to build integrity arrangements around a category that is expanding faster than the legal consensus surrounding it.
The NHL helped set the template
The NHL moved first among major U.S. leagues with a broad commercial embrace of prediction markets. Its multi-year partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket gave both exchanges access to league data and rights, including use of NHL branding on platforms and related products. The arrangements also provided exposure during regular-season games, the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Winter Classic and the Stadium Series.
Those deals showed how leagues could treat prediction exchanges as fan engagement partners even while regulators and gaming interests disputed their legal status. The NHL framed the category as a fast-evolving way to broaden interest in games. Kalshi and Polymarket framed the agreements as validation of their legitimacy and trustworthiness.
The reaction from the traditional gaming sector was immediate. The American Gaming Association called the NHL partnerships deeply concerning, saying professional leagues should not lend their brands to companies it views as operating outside state gambling law and established consumer protection norms. Nevada regulators also reminded licensees that they regard sports event contracts like traditional wagers, meaning such products can be offered in the state only by entities with appropriate gaming approvals.
That conflict helps explain why the NBA’s decision is significant. The league is not merely granting marketing rights. It is attempting to shape the category before courts, regulators or competitors define it without the league’s involvement.
Integrity concerns pushed leagues toward data-sharing
Sports leagues have long argued that betting integrity requires visibility into markets, rapid access to suspicious activity reports and authority to restrict risky bet types. Prediction markets complicate that effort because they are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not by state gaming regulators. That regulatory split has made information-sharing agreements a central tool for leagues seeking oversight.
The NHL addressed that issue through an integrity agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, establishing regular cooperation and confidential information sharing on hockey-related event contracts. The agreement followed a similar arrangement involving Major League Baseball and signaled that the CFTC was willing to work directly with sports bodies as sports-related contracts proliferate.
The NBA’s memorandum of understanding with the CFTC builds on that model. It reflects the league’s view that prediction markets raise many of the same threats as sports betting: insider trading, misuse of confidential injury or lineup information, suspicious market moves and pressure on players or staff. The league’s aim is to ensure that the growth of event contracts does not create blind spots outside the monitoring systems already used with sportsbooks.
The stakes are heightened by recent scandals. The NBA has faced allegations involving the misuse of inside information and manipulation risks tied to player performance. Those cases reinforced the league’s position that market access and data visibility are not optional if new trading products are allowed to develop around its games.
Bet restrictions foreshadowed the NBA’s approach
The NBA had already been narrowing the types of wagers it considers acceptable. It recently barred partner sportsbooks from offering several bet types viewed as vulnerable to manipulation, including certain unders, same-player under parlays, opening-tip wagers and markets tied to whether a player would miss a specific shot. The league also moved to limit wagers involving low-minute players and highly granular events that can be influenced by a single action.
Those restrictions provide context for the NBA’s prediction market strategy. The league is not treating all engagement products as equal. It is trying to distinguish between markets that can be monitored and settled with reliable data and those that may increase risks for players, teams and competitive integrity.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has said the league wants direct access to prediction market data and control over the scope of markets tied to its games. That position is now reflected in the league’s agreements. Kalshi and Polymarket gain access to official NBA data and intellectual property, but the league gains a formal framework for market limits, personnel trading prohibitions and information-sharing obligations.
The arrangement also protects the NBA’s existing sportsbook business. By setting conditions for prediction exchanges, the league can reduce the chance that a rival product grows outside its commercial and integrity structure while maintaining relationships with DraftKings, FanDuel and other betting partners.
Sportradar positioned itself as the infrastructure layer
The NBA’s use of official data from Sportradar fits into a broader industry shift. Sportradar had already signed a global agreement with Kalshi covering data streams from Major League Baseball, the NHL, Major League Soccer and the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Analysts saw that deal as a gateway for prediction markets to acquire the same kind of reliable, low-latency data that underpins regulated sports betting.
J.P. Morgan and Jefferies analysts described the Kalshi-Sportradar pact as financially modest in the near term but potentially important as the market matures. The logic is straightforward: prediction markets need authoritative data to settle contracts, monitor integrity and support market makers. Leagues need trusted distributors to control how official data is used. Sportradar sits between those interests.
The NBA was not included in the initial Sportradar-Kalshi agreement, but analysts anticipated that NBA data could be added if the league approved the category. That is effectively what the new NBA framework does. It gives Kalshi and Polymarket a path to official data while allowing the league to attach restrictions and oversight conditions.
The data relationship also points to where the market may head next. Analysts have said micro-betting-style products could eventually emerge in prediction markets if liquidity improves and market makers take more active roles. That possibility is commercially attractive but legally sensitive because it further blurs the line between financial event contracts and conventional sports wagers.
A fast-growing market still faces legal and political risk
Kalshi and Polymarket’s rise has attracted scrutiny beyond sports. A recent dispute with the Roosevelt Institute underscored the broader debate over whether prediction markets are neutral exchanges or casino-like products. Kalshi challenged the institute’s analysis of user losses, arguing that the report misunderstood exchange mechanics and reflected casino industry influence. The think tank had argued that ordinary users were at a structural disadvantage against sophisticated traders.
The dispute matters because public perception may shape regulation as much as legal doctrine. Prediction markets are regulated as derivatives venues, but state officials and gaming operators say sports contracts compete directly with sportsbooks. If courts or federal regulators narrow the scope of allowable contracts, the business models now being built around league data and branding could change quickly.
For the NBA, the risk is two-sided. Staying out of prediction markets could leave the league with less visibility into products tied to its games. Entering the category invites criticism from gaming interests and regulators that view the exchanges as unlicensed betting operators. The league’s answer is to formalize relationships with the leading platforms, insist on integrity controls and work with the CFTC rather than wait for a settled national framework.
That approach places the NBA near the center of a regulatory contest that is likely to intensify. Prediction markets are no longer an abstract financial product adjacent to sports. They are becoming a commercial partner, data customer and integrity challenge for the leagues themselves.
