Moon Intelligence strengthens leadership as it targets US prediction markets

Steve (Ziv) Chen

20 November 2025 at 6:23am UTC-5

Source: Moon Intelligence

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London-based data consultancy Moon Intelligence has appointed Stephen Shaw and Enda Kendrick as Chief Operations Officer and Chief Customer Officer as it pursues growth in US prediction markets.

Both roles are tied to the company’s plan to apply its model to US prediction platforms by offering liquidity support and operational improvements.

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Shaw (pictured left) previously worked at Jump Trading and RISQ Capital, bringing more than 13 years of experience in technology and trading. “The opportunity to join Moon Intelligence at such an intriguing stage for the industry really excites me. Prediction markets are experiencing remarkable growth, and I’m looking forward to help scale our technology and operations to support that momentum,” he said.

Kendrick (pictured right), who has over 10 years’ experience in prediction markets through roles at sports betting exchanges Matchbook and Betdaq, said, “It’s a fascinating prospect to join Moon Intelligence at a time when prediction markets are booming in the US. Having worked in this space for so long, I understand the value that Moon Intelligence offers and firmly believe we can add significant value to the predictions sector.”

Co-founder and Chief Executive Alexandre Luneau added, “Bringing both Stephen and Enda on board will significantly support our ambition to grow Moon Intelligence’s presence in the US market.”

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Major sportsbooks FanDuel and DraftKings have recently announced their departures from the American Gaming Association, after announcing separately that both companies would be launching prediction markets, despite strong opposition.

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The Backstory

Why a staffing shuffle signals a bigger U.S. play

Moon Intelligence’s move to bring in seasoned operators with exchange and trading pedigrees lands as the U.S. prediction market pivots from niche to mainstream. The London-based firm’s plan to apply its liquidity and ops model to American platforms lines up with an industry moment defined by new distribution, fresh regulation tests and a fight to scale event contracts without triggering gambling prohibitions. The question is not just whether the market will grow, but which architectures will capture that growth: futures-style, exchange-driven event contracts or sportsbook-adjacent products that look and feel like betting but live under federal commodities oversight.

The company’s timing coincides with large consumer platforms seeking a piece of the action. Major brands are leaning on prediction products to reach states without legal sportsbooks and to diversify revenue beyond volatile trading and ad cycles. Moon Intelligence’s emphasis on liquidity support and operational efficiency speaks to a core bottleneck in event-contract markets: tight spreads and deep order books are hard to sustain at scale across sports, politics and pop culture. As new entrants go broad, the edge goes to shops that can industrialize market-making and risk systems.

Washington’s referee weighs in

The regulatory map is still being drawn. President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Brian Quintez, used his Senate confirmation hearing to frame event contracts as an evolving hedging tool within the agency’s remit. His ties to Kalshi, where he serves as a director and holds stock, drew scrutiny over conflicts even after a pledge to divest if confirmed. Still, his remarks underscored a view that prediction platforms and crypto could shape market structure in the next term. Read more about the nomination debate in coverage of Quintez’s testimony and Kalshi links.

The policy stakes are concrete. States have moved to block sports-linked event contracts on the theory they fall under gambling laws, not commodities. Kalshi has challenged several of those rulings, a preview of jurisdictional fights that could define where and how prediction products can operate. A CFTC led by a chair who views event contracts as part of the agency’s core mission could embolden exchanges to broaden listings and press legal challenges. A more cautious approach would slow product rollouts and push operators to focus on uncontroversial markets or offshore growth.

Wall Street’s vote: real revenue, real risk

Investor reaction has been swift as consumer brokerages add predictions rails. Robinhood’s foray is already producing material revenue, according to a Piper Sandler note that credits sports betting and event contracts with about $200 million for the platform. The firm’s revenue split arrangement with Kalshi and record trading in September suggest the model can scale in football season and beyond if regulators allow NFL and NCAA markets to continue. For the bullish case and regulatory cautions, see analysis of Robinhood’s $200 million prediction haul.

Robinhood is also probing expansion pathways overseas where prediction products can fall under gambling, not commodities, oversight. The company has begun talks with the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority to determine whether event contracts would be treated as swaps or another instrument, and has signaled it will avoid controversial listings to ease approvals. That push highlights a broader strategic hedge: if U.S. rules remain contested, operators can seek growth in markets with clearer frameworks. For details on the cross-border calculus, read reporting on Robinhood’s international plans.

For Moon Intelligence, those currents create a serviceable demand curve. Exchanges scaling into sports and entertainment need professional liquidity. Platforms eyeing new geographies need tooling that adapts to different rulebooks. A data-driven market-maker that can port systems across jurisdictions becomes a vendor-of-choice in a fragmented regime.

DraftKings’ end run into non-sportsbook states

Incumbent sportsbooks are building their own bridge into predictions to unlock audiences where wagering remains illegal. DraftKings says its forthcoming DraftKings Predictions could be a “significant incremental opportunity,” especially in states where it lacks a sportsbook. The thesis is blunt: familiarize consumers with event contracts under federal oversight, then convert them to sports betting when states legalize. Chief Executive Jason Robins also argued the visibility and tax profile of prediction products may nudge lawmakers toward “reasonable regulation and taxation” for online betting. See the company’s strategic pitch in coverage of DraftKings’ prediction markets plan.

For an infrastructure provider, that means preparing for demand from operators who will not just list politics and macro events, but high-frequency sports markets that trade like micro-futures. Liquidity services have to keep up with latency-sensitive flows and retail surges around game time. The playbook looks less like a traditional bookmaker’s and more like an exchange’s, which is the lane Moon Intelligence says it wants to occupy.

A DFS powerhouse links arms with a predictions native

The lines between daily fantasy sports and event contracts are blurring as distribution becomes the prize. PrizePicks, the largest DFS operator by members, struck a multi-year deal with Polymarket to bring event contracts into the PrizePicks app. The partnership coincides with Polymarket’s path back into the United States via the acquisition of a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, QCEX, and with PrizePicks securing registration as a Futures Commission Merchant. The arrangement is designed to add regulated derivatives to a consumer base trained on player props and picks. Read how the tie-up may reset the user funnel in reporting on the PrizePicks–Polymarket partnership.

That distribution scale matters. If DFS and brokerage platforms can push prediction contracts into mainstream apps, order flow will deepen, tick sizes will compress and spreads should tighten. But the compliance lift is heavy: KYC standards, clearing connectivity and product governance must satisfy commodities rules that are stricter than sportsbook norms in many states.

The stakes: market plumbing and political risk

Prediction markets are poised to test U.S. regulatory boundaries through 2026 as sports, elections and entertainment converge on the same rails. Liquidity providers and data consultancies sit at the center of that experiment. They can make markets tradable, but they also carry reputational and policy risk if contracts veer into sensitive areas. Operators have already said they will avoid morbid or inflammatory listings to keep regulators onside. Still, the gray zones remain wide, and court challenges could redraw the map in either direction.

For Moon Intelligence, success turns on three variables. First, whether the CFTC cements event contracts as core market infrastructure, easing exchange approvals and clarifying jurisdiction. Second, whether consumer platforms like Robinhood, DraftKings and PrizePicks convert mass audiences into durable trading liquidity. Third, whether cross-border expansion creates a release valve if U.S. listings slow. The company’s leadership additions suggest it is building for that mix: exchange-grade market operations, fast integrations and risk systems that flex across rule sets.

The industry’s near-term scoreboard will be simple: depth, spreads, revenue per user and regulatory wins. The longer game is whether prediction markets evolve from a seasonal novelty into a permanent fixture of retail finance and sports engagement. That is the bet many operators are making. The market now needs the plumbing to match.