Kalshi and Polymarket hit record US$10 billion trading volume for November

Charlotte Capewell

2 December 2025 at 7:59am UTC-5

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Kalshi and Polymarket have recorded an all-time high in trading volumes for November, reaching a combined figure of US$10 billion, according to data from The Block.

The Block reports that the month was defined by growth of retail activity, deeper platform integrations, and a steady stream of news events that kept traders active.

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Prediction markets allow people to trade contracts tied to real-world events, with the prices reflecting what the market believes is the likely outcome of each event. Traders increasingly use these markets to track sentiment around elections, economic news, and global risk factors.

Kalshi led the month’s gains, with monthly spot volume jumping from US$4.4 billion in October to US$5.8 billion in November, breaking its own record.

Polymarket also broke its previous high, climbing from US$3.02 billion to more than US$3.7 billion, marking a 23.8% month-on-month rise.

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The platforms now command the vast majority of global prediction-market activity, according to market-share data, which strengthens what analysts have described as an emerging duopoly.

The rapid expansion has been matched by aggressive capital building. Kalshi doubled its valuation in recent weeks, reaching US$11 billion following a US$1 billion funding round.

Polymarket has also accelerated its growth, striking major deals with Yahoo and Google Finance, while finalizing its return to the US with regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Charlotte Capewell brings her passion for storytelling and expertise in writing, researching, and the gambling industry to every article she writes. Her specialties include the US gambling industry, regulator legislation, igaming, and more.

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The Backstory

How prediction markets reached a breakout month

November’s record trading surge for Kalshi and Polymarket capped months of expansion that pushed prediction markets into the sports mainstream, drew Wall Street liquidity and triggered regulatory and branding fights that are still unfolding. The two platforms have become the sector’s center of gravity by layering licensed access, media integrations and high-profile partnerships onto a steady cadence of product additions. That mix helped turn routine schedule items — game nights, award shows, election milestones — into market-moving catalysts, a shift that translated into heavier retail flows, tighter spreads and more continuous liquidity.

The rally did not happen in a vacuum. Both companies spent the fall sharpening their consumer funnels and broadening what traders could bet on, from game-level outcomes to culture and politics. That wider surface area gave users more reasons to check in daily and more ways to express views, while the companies leaned on federally regulated intermediaries and commodity-derivatives permissions to distribute event contracts at scale. In turn, the higher throughput reinforced their standing with institutional market makers and corporate partners, creating a flywheel that set up November’s breakout.

Regulatory positioning remains a strategic hinge. Kalshi in particular has emphasized its federally supervised framework to court mainstream partners and venues, a choice that has also made it a target for state-level challenges arguing some sports contracts look like prohibited wagers. Polymarket, after resolving its own U.S. restrictions, has moved faster on distribution deals and media tie-ins while keeping an eye on stateside return paths. The result is an emerging duopoly that trades on credibility as much as velocity.

Leagues test the waters — and pushback follows

One turning point arrived when the NHL signed multiyear partnerships with both platforms. The league granted access to official data and branding, putting team logos and marks in front of prediction market audiences and promising broadcast exposure during marquee events. The move, outlined in the NHL’s deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, was a public validation of the category’s reach and a bid to convert viewer engagement into trading interest throughout the season.

The backlash was immediate. Traditional sportsbooks, which navigate state-by-state approvals and compliance, bristled at rivals scaling under federal commodity rules. Industry groups called the NHL’s approach “deeply concerning,” and Nevada’s regulator reiterated that sports event contracts are functionally wagers in the state and must be offered only by licensed sportsbooks. The flash point underscored a core tension: prediction markets are seeking mainstream sports legitimacy without adopting the commercial and compliance playbook of sports betting incumbents. That gap is now at the heart of risk assessments leagues must make about data access, branding and integrity monitoring.

Wall Street liquidity takes the field

The sector’s maturation also drew in professional trading firms that view event contracts as a natural extension of market making. Chicago-based Jump Trading began creating markets on Kalshi’s sports event contracts, according to reporting on Jump’s move into sports event markets. The firm’s participation signals two dynamics: prediction markets have grown deep enough to support institutional strategies, and pricing efficiency is improving as pros arbitrage mispricings across venues and news cycles.

Institutional interest is not purely about near-term spreads. Large investors have been drawn by the prospect of a new asset class with uncorrelated payoffs and retail engagement that rivals fantasy sports. Capital has followed. Kalshi’s latest round vaulted its valuation, while Polymarket secured backing from major financial infrastructure owners. With bigger balance sheets and professional liquidity providers, both platforms have reduced friction for large tickets and narrowed bid-ask gaps, conditions that help sustain record months when headline events cluster.

Deal chatter hints at consolidation pressure

As the leaders scale, smaller operators are becoming targets — or at least conversation starters. Front Office Sports reported that Kalshi and Polymarket had shown interest in sweepstakes-style operator Novig, even as the company signaled it was not for sale. The episode, detailed in coverage of Novig’s talks with Kalshi and Polymarket, highlights a likely next phase: consolidation and capability buying to accelerate user acquisition, sport-specific expertise or novel payout mechanics.

Novig’s retreat from New Jersey shortly after a funding round illustrated how fragile some state-based models remain compared with federally supervised routes used by prediction markets. For Kalshi and Polymarket, acquiring or partnering with niche platforms can deliver incremental inventory and audience segments without overhauling their regulatory strategies. For targets, the calculus is starker: either find defensible niches or plug into the leaders’ distribution before customer acquisition costs climb and compliance headwinds intensify.

Branding and IP become a battleground

The push for visibility has tested the boundaries of league and union permissions. Both platforms were accused of using NFL and NFL Players Association branding and athlete images without approval in separate campaigns, according to reporting on alleged unlicensed NFL and NFLPA branding. The NFL has warned that prediction markets mimic sportsbooks and are off-limits to league personnel, and it has emphasized the need for operator-to-league information sharing that mirrors sportsbook standards.

For prediction markets, the lesson is clear: rights deals buy distribution and legitimacy, while unauthorized uses risk legal exposure and erode league goodwill. As leagues weigh data-sharing agreements, they are likely to demand compliance parity with sportsbooks on integrity monitoring, suspicious-activity reporting and responsible-gaming protocols. The stricter those requirements become, the more prediction markets must invest in controls that align with professional sports’ expectations without losing the speed and breadth that differentiate them from betting apps.

Distribution deals widen the funnel

The category’s retail breakout is also being driven by integrations with established fantasy and gaming platforms. PrizePicks incorporated Kalshi’s event contracts into its app through a federally approved broker, allowing users in 38 states and Washington, D.C., to trade on sports, entertainment and cultural outcomes. The rollout, described in PrizePicks’ integration of Kalshi markets, followed an announcement that PrizePicks would also work with Polymarket, positioning prediction markets alongside fantasy products for a large audience accustomed to micro-stakes gameplay.

These integrations matter because they compress the onboarding funnel: users can discover event contracts without downloading new apps, passing fresh KYC checks or funding new wallets. They also give prediction markets ready-made content calendars tied to marquee sports and pop culture, which tends to smooth volume between political cycles. As more consumer apps seek engagement extensions, expect additional white-label or brokered access to event contracts — and more scrutiny from regulators and leagues on how those products are marketed and supervised.

Taken together, the NHL’s embrace and the NFL’s resistance, Wall Street’s arrival, consolidation talk and fantasy integrations explain how liquidity pooled in November and why the stakes are rising. If prediction markets can secure more league-grade partnerships and maintain federal cover while addressing state-level objections, their record month could become a baseline. If not, the same forces that fueled growth — aggressive marketing, rapid product expansion and regulatory arbitrage — could invite the kind of constraints that slow the flywheel just as it gains speed.