Codere Onine vows to stay in Colombia, despite tax hike
In spite of what CEO Aviv Sher called a very unfortunate 19% tax on player deposits, he said his company is not leaving Colombia.
His remarks were made during Codere Online’s third-quarter earnings call on 12 November.
Sher said Codere would be working with the Colombian government and gaming regulators to try and mitigate or roll back the tax, but will not exit the country. Instead it would curtail its investments there and expect little financial return from them.
Looking back on “another very strong quarter” and ahead to an NFL game in Mexico on 22 November, Sher highlighted Codere’s status as the league’s official betting partner in that country. He said Mexico, in addition to being Codere’s largest market, had “one of the most passionate fanbases” for sports.
However, Sher said the NFL effect was already baked into earnings guidance and “it will take us more than this season. Sponsorships take time. I don’t think we’ll see a large effect immediately,” despite the greater visibility of Codere.
In one major change, Chief Financial Officer Marcus Arildsson revealed that Codere would no longer report net gaming revenue, now preferring gaming win. “For investors, nothing should change in terms of substance,” he said, calling win “the key performance metric we use to run the business.”
The CFO also predicted short-term friction in Spain, as new player-identification and deposit rules went into place. He added that established operators would be less affected than newcomers.
While declining to offer 2027 guidance, Arildsson said that “the fundamentals of the business remain strong.” He elaborated that spending was more conservative entering the fourth quarter and Sher added, “as much as I would like to give some amazing news, we’re still staying within the [previous] range” for 2026.
Looking back on the third quarter, Sher said the World Cup should be regarded as an anomaly, albeit one with “extremely good returns.” He said Codere was consistently obtaining new players at the same acquisition cost as before. Sher said it was the same for first-time depositors, albeit slowed temporarily by the new rules in Spain.
“Right now we have nothing concrete,” Sher allowed, when queried about expanding into prediction markets, at least in the southern United States. “It’s an interesting opportunity for us.” He said the Codere was examining the newly changed political climate in the U.S. and it was too soon to discuss prospective investments.
Codere executives expressed comfort with their marketing spending, estimated to be near €100 million (US$111 million)1 EUR = 1.1078 USD
2026-11-12Powered by CMG CurrenShift for 2026, up from 2026’s €86 million (US$95 million)1 EUR = 1.1078 USD
2026-11-12Powered by CMG CurrenShift. Arildsson said that 2027 might be slightly lower than 2026 but not materially.
Interjected Sher, “it’s good that we’re able to maintain this level of marketing. I’m fighting for marketing money.”
Turning to Codere’s smaller markets, Arildsson said Panama wasn’t significant enough to be broken out on its own but “has been very positive. The environment is quite stable.”
Explained Sher, “Panama is a small, very nice market with, unfortunately, a cap as to how much we can make there. I wish we had more Panamas.”
One prospective market was Uruguay. She said Codere was in discussion there and had good relationships in the country. But, he noted, he had been hearing about iGaming legalization there for three years with no result.
Sher added that he thought 2027 might be different. “We have a lot of positive feedback from the government,” he said.
David McKee is an award-winning journalist who has three decades of experience covering the gaming industry.
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The Backstory
Colombia shifts from opportunity to constraint
Codere Online’s pledge to remain in Colombia comes after more than a year in which the market moved from a Latin American growth option to a test of regulatory tolerance. The company has repeatedly said the issue is not consumer demand but taxation, particularly levies applied to deposits that change the economics of acquiring and retaining players.
The current dispute centers on a 19% tax on player deposits, which Chief Executive Aviv Sher described as damaging but not enough to force an exit. That position marks a softer posture than the warning Codere issued previously, when executives said the company would make no further investments if Colombia renewed its deposit tax. In that earlier call, the company said Colombia’s unit economics no longer justified fresh spending and that it was operating as if the tax burden could persist. Codere’s ultimatum on Colombia’s tax regime set the stage for the latest comments by framing investment, rather than market presence, as the lever management would pull.
The distinction matters. Remaining in Colombia preserves licenses, customer relationships and optionality if the policy environment improves. But reducing investment limits marketing, product support and the ability to compete aggressively against rivals that may have different cost structures or risk appetites. For an online operator, deposit friction also can dampen conversion, since new customers must absorb or confront the tax at the point where they fund accounts.
A tax pattern across Latin America
Colombia is not an isolated problem for Codere. The company has also had to absorb higher tax expectations in Mexico, its largest market. Earlier this year, management described Mexico as the company’s main growth engine while acknowledging a government push to raise gaming taxes from 30% to 50%. Sher said then the higher Mexican rate was not a threat to revenue generation, but the comment came with an important caveat: Codere would offset the pressure through operating efficiency rather than unchecked promotion.
That strategy reflects the company’s broader Latin American posture. Codere has not been racing into new countries. It has emphasized markets where it already has scale, brand recognition or regulatory familiarity, while treating volatile tax policy as a reason to delay marginal spending. In Mexico, management said player acquisition costs remained attractive and customer value was holding up, giving the company more room to maneuver. In Colombia, by contrast, the tax structure has directly affected the company’s willingness to market.
The difference was clear in Codere’s discussion of Mexico’s growth and tax challenge. Mexico could withstand higher taxes because scale, customer behavior and competitive disruption worked in Codere’s favor. Colombia lacked that cushion. Sher said at the time the company was not ready to invest more there without clarity, and Chief Financial Officer Marcus Arildsson said management would stay on the sidelines until the environment firmed up.
World Cup gains gave management room to wait
Codere’s harder line on Colombia has been made easier by stronger performance elsewhere. The company’s second quarter was boosted by the World Cup, which generated stronger-than-expected betting and igaming activity. Revenue rose 27%, monthly active users increased 12% and management raised full-year guidance. Spain and Mexico were the primary drivers, while revenue from other territories, including Colombia, also grew.
Those results gave Codere breathing room. In its second-quarter earnings update, management said net gaming revenue more than doubled from the 2022 World Cup period and that acquisition costs fell even as marketing investment increased. The company also reported strong cross-sell from sports betting into igaming, an important factor because casino-style play can extend customer value beyond a tournament window.
But management also treated the World Cup as unusual. Sher cautioned that tournament-driven players are often cheaper to acquire but less durable, returning for major events rather than behaving like regular customers. That explains why Codere has been careful not to overstate the long-term effect of major sports events, including the NFL’s arrival in Mexico. It also explains the company’s preference for maintaining exposure in Colombia without committing more money until tax policy improves. Temporary event-led growth can support earnings, but it does not fix an unfavorable fiscal framework.
Mexico becomes the strategic counterweight
Mexico’s role has grown more important as Colombia has become less attractive. In the first quarter, Mexico represented 53% of Codere’s business, compared with 41% for Spain. Management said it was curbing some Mexican promotions to filter out unprofitable bonus hunters, a sign that scale had reached a point where quality of customer was more important than raw volume.
Codere then deepened that strategy through its NFL partnership. The company became the league’s official betting partner in Mexico, gaining access to marketing, hospitality and fan engagement around NFL events. The deal includes sponsorship exposure tied to the 2026 NFL Mexico City Game and Super Bowl LXI. The agreement, described in Codere’s NFL betting partnership in Mexico, reinforced management’s view that Mexico can support premium sports positioning even with a tougher tax backdrop.
Still, Codere has been measured about expected returns. Sher has said sponsorships take time and that the NFL effect is already reflected in guidance. That caution is consistent with management’s recent commentary across markets: spend where the company sees durable returns, avoid chasing short-term spikes and preserve capital when regulation is unsettled.
Spain provides stability but not the same upside
Spain remains the company’s mature base. Codere has described the market as tightly regulated but stable, with growth continuing despite greater compliance burdens. New player-identification and deposit rules are expected to create short-term friction, particularly for newer operators, while established companies such as Codere may be better positioned to adjust.
That stability has value as Latin American tax policy shifts. Spain may not offer Mexico’s growth profile, but it provides recurring revenue, brand familiarity and regulatory predictability. Earlier this year, Codere said monthly active users were rising and acquisition costs were generally declining, even as competition made the start of the year more expensive. The company’s first-quarter earnings update showed management focusing on higher-value players rather than volume for its own sake.
The Spanish business also helps explain why Codere can afford to be patient in Colombia. A company dependent on one volatile market might have to accept lower returns to defend share. Codere instead can lean on Spain and Mexico while keeping Colombia alive as a future recovery option. That approach reduces near-term upside if Colombian rules improve quickly, but it avoids deepening exposure to a policy regime management considers uneconomic.
The stakes for investors and regulators
For investors, Codere’s Colombia stance is a test of capital discipline. Management is signaling that market access alone is not enough; taxes, payment friction and political risk must still support acceptable returns. The company has also changed how it presents performance, moving from net gaming revenue to gaming win as its preferred operating metric. Executives say the change does not alter the substance of the business, but it puts more emphasis on the measure management says it uses internally.
For regulators, the message is equally direct. Tax hikes can raise near-term government revenue, but they may also reduce marketing, product investment and competition from licensed operators. If legal companies spend less, offshore or informal alternatives can become more attractive to consumers, especially in markets where enforcement is uneven. Codere has repeatedly urged governments to focus on illegal operators rather than relying mainly on higher taxes on licensed firms.
Codere’s decision to stay in Colombia therefore is not a vote of confidence in the current tax structure. It is a decision to preserve a foothold while limiting downside. The company is betting that political or regulatory conditions may eventually improve, as executives have suggested could happen after elections or further government engagement. Until then, Colombia is likely to remain a managed presence rather than a growth priority, while Mexico and Spain carry the company’s investment case.
